Vitor Constâncio @VMRConstancio
Former ECB Vice President. President of the Council of ISEG, University of Lisbon. Professor at Navarra University, Masters School, Madrid macroviews.net/wp Portugal Joined April 2012-
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Merci bien @C_Barraud ! Have a great weekend, everyone.
Merci bien @C_Barraud ! Have a great weekend, everyone.
🇺🇸 *US MARCH PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. 0.3% - BBG *US MARCH PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 2.7% Y/Y; EST. 2.6% *US MARCH CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3% *US MARCH CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 2.8% Y/Y; EST. 2.7 *US MARCH PERSONAL INCOME RISES 0.5% M/M; EST. +0.5%…
The big problem for US inflationistas - those who always see another inflation breakout coming - is this chart. Maybe the output gap isn't as big as after the 2008 crisis, but you have a hard time claiming that the US is overheating. So where is inflation supposed to come from?
ALERT: Median home prices are officially contracting at levels NEVER seen in 60 years Let that sink in
Treasury Bills $BIL are yielding 381% more than the S&P 500 $SPY dividend. The large spread between cash & stock yields is similar to what was seen during the Dot-com bubble, a period of high stock market valuations. It's uncommon to see a spread this high over the past century.
New GVC dataset! This @voxeu column introduces a new open-access dataset of ready-to-use GVC positioning indicators. 🔗 cepr.org/voxeu/columns/… @cepr_org @bancaditalia
Join our Annual Conference 2024 - From Birth to Maturity: Ten Years of the Banking Union - co-organised w/ @iep_bu. 🗓️ 16-17 May 🌍Florence Register fbf.eui.eu/events/?id=558… Great lineup of speakers including @LBiniSmaghi @ElenaCarletti7 @corradopassera @VMRConstancio
Merci bien @C_Barraud ! I wish you all a great weekend
Merci bien @C_Barraud ! I wish you all a great weekend
Thank you very much. Have a good and restful weekend, everyone!
Thank you very much. Have a good and restful weekend, everyone!
Merci bien @C_Barraud ! I wish you all a great weekend
Merci bien @C_Barraud ! I wish you all a great weekend
The shrinking of CBs' balance sheets is going smoothly, with a single-digit basis point effect on sovereign bonds´yields. In the Euro Area, the new buyers absorbing the CBs reduction were mostly foreigners, except in Italy ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/dat…
Merci bien @C_Barraud ! Have a great weekend, everyone
Merci bien @C_Barraud ! Have a great weekend, everyone
Merci bien @C_Barraud! Have a great weekend, everyone.
Merci bien @C_Barraud! Have a great weekend, everyone.
Like in the US, the Job Vacancies rate (and its ratio to Unemployment) it’s coming down without a change in unemployment. It´s part of the mechanisms working in favour of lower inflation without a significant recession.
Like in the US, the Job Vacancies rate (and its ratio to Unemployment) it’s coming down without a change in unemployment. It´s part of the mechanisms working in favour of lower inflation without a significant recession.
Political skills of Italian PM have increased her power in Europe to shift policies and foster her leadership of the European groups to the right of center-right. Dangers of less Europe after June. Read this politico.eu/article/giorgi…—%20and%20befriend%20Donald%20Trump
Merci bien @C_Barraud ! Have a great weekend, everyone!
Merci bien @C_Barraud ! Have a great weekend, everyone!
Favourable data for the US and the FED narrative. Strong creation of jobs (resilient economy) and slight deceleration of wages. The small increase in the unemployment rate was therefore the result of an increase of the participation rate in the labour force. Cuts are imminent.
Favourable data for the US and the FED narrative. Strong creation of jobs (resilient economy) and slight deceleration of wages. The small increase in the unemployment rate was therefore the result of an increase of the participation rate in the labour force. Cuts are imminent.
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No one’s truly free without rules and regulations. Counterintuitive? Think stoplights. Without them, pandemonium and gridlock. With them, I stop so you can drive through, and vice versa. We both have the freedom to move about with fewer traffic jams and accidents. This same idea…
The big problem for US inflationistas - those who always see another inflation breakout coming - is this chart. Maybe the output gap isn't as big as after the 2008 crisis, but you have a hard time claiming that the US is overheating. So where is inflation supposed to come from?
“Our rivals are stealing a march on us because they can act as one country with one strategy and align all the necessary tools and policies behind it. We need a re-defining of our Union no less ambitious than what the Founding Fathers did 70 years ago”. geopolitique.eu/en/2024/04/16/…
Albert O. Hirschman would have turned 109 years old. Hirschman fought fascism in four countries saving thousands of lives before becoming one of the great social scientists of the 20th century. I recommend this excellent biography.
Just received my copy. Lots of reading to do this week.
The maiden voyage of Chinese EV powerhouse BYD's car carrier has to go around the Cape of Good Hope to reach Europe ... So many geopolitical trends in a single story. The trip will likely be the first of many.
My speech at the G20 today — making the case for a coordinated minimum tax on the super-rich, and more broadly calling for new era of multilateralism, focused on rooting out the inequalities that can corrode democratic societies +some thoughts on the reactions... 1/n
🇨🇳 #China Yield Curve Nears Inversion in Sign More Stimulus Needed – Bloomberg bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Knapp's State Theory of Money quick summary (leaving aside exchange section): 1-There are /= payment systems ("pay-society") that may or may not use the same unit of account (UA) & means of payments (MP). Banks & state are two main ones.The state has“the oldest society of payers”
The Euro zone is heading for another long growth slump, just like after 2008. The sooner the ECB recognizes this and cuts interest rates, the less severe this slump will be. Time for the ECB to completely change course. Euro will fall below parity and that will be a good thing...
Rrf was good. Let’s do another round for defence
The EU Commission published a mid-term assessment of the RRF (NGEU). €225 bn have disbursed, 38% of more than 6000 targets (until 2026) and milestones have been completed by member Countries. 37% of completed targets related to greening projects. 1/
@VMRConstancio Thank you, dear Vitor. Hope you are well!
This pretty much reflects my definition of “transitory” — expected mean-reversion, conditional on information.
Markets couldn’t predict the rise of inflation but they did surprisingly decent predicting its decline (so far)
I have said that China's reported current account surplus of $265 billion in 2023 isn't credible. For those *cough, US Treasury and IMF * that need an alternative estimate, try $720 billion (4% of China's 2023 GDP) 1/
@VMRConstancio Indeed... looking at the rear-mirror. bruegel.org/comment/lookin…
🇪🇺 Euro area negotiated wage growth eased to 4.5% in Q4 23. Leading indicators are pointing to further normalisation in 2024. Core inflation is easing too, faster than the ECB expected. It's about time to stop worrying about backward-looking data.
Take them.😀 Why are people still willing to pay tens of thousands in tuition when they can get these for free... This will change, and, with it, the business model of higher ed.
MIT University just released free online courses. No payment required. Here are 10 courses you don't want to miss in 2024:
We need a better and stronger Europe. Big challenges are coming, sooner than we think
This EU makes me angry… 13 packages, 13 veto’s, zero lessons learnt. How long we will continue with unanimity making a geopolitical Europe impossible?!
Very nice reply to monetary hawks
Perfect graph to motivate an open-economy approach to inflation and monetary policy. Will use it to start my international macro course next week.
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