Frederik Ducrozet @fwred
Head of Macroeconomic Research, Pictet Wealth Management @PictetGroup. ECB Watcher. All opinions mine. Switzerland Joined April 2009-
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A sigh of relief as Eurozone GDP surprises on the upside in Q1 this year and it's not because of Ireland
A sigh of relief as Eurozone GDP surprises on the upside in Q1 this year and it's not because of Ireland https://t.co/KwRu0VRYTM
🇺🇸 US ECI wage growth still running hot but also uneven across sectors. Normalisation in labour-intensive, low-wage industries vs. sticky services like healthcare.
Don’t believe the headlines about sticky inflation, April was a great month for 🇪🇺#inflation. Core mostly did as expected, with another decline to 2.7% from 2.9%. But it was the headline which was better than expected, inching lower rather than higher (on unrounded basis). 1/
🇫🇷 French inflation was broadly stable in April due to higher energy prices but more importantly, services inflation looks sticky around 3% for now. Core goods fell slightly (-0.1% YoY). Le dernier kilomètre.
🇪🇺 Weak growth in the euro area manufacturing sector, and lower price pressures in the services sector. Concerns over sticky inflation and wage growth are not backed by the data.
🇩🇪German inflation broadly in line with expectations. Ignore the noisy headline numbers, focus on services.
🇩🇪German inflation broadly in line with expectations. Ignore the noisy headline numbers, focus on services.
🇪🇸 Underlying inflation keeps normalising in Spain, down to 2.9% in April. The national statistics office INE notes that "the fall in entertainment and culture prices is noteworthy".
ON. REPEAT. @RafaelNadal #MMOpen
As you all know, I’m typically very pro-EU/EZ, but there is something epically funny about an EU Commission led by a CDU pol accusing China of engaging in insufficient fiscal stimulus to spur local demand and relying too much on exports to spur recovery from a financial crisis.
🇺🇸 US core PCE up +0.317% in March on the back of modest upward revisions to Jan-Feb numbers. Less bad than feared post Q1 print, but still not good. Hawkish Fed hold likely next week, waiting for the one trillion dollar question on rate hikes.
🇫🇷 First time in 3 years that more French companies are reporting demand issues than supply issues.
🇪🇺 @EmmanuelMacron: "Our Europe could die, and this only depends on our choices."
Ironic because in Berlin many think von der Leyen is too French in her thinking. So the theory is: too German for Paris, too French for Berlin, and they end up unseating her for an Italian? Aha This could also just be Macron showing his teeth to extract concessions from UvdL.
Ironic because in Berlin many think von der Leyen is too French in her thinking. So the theory is: too German for Paris, too French for Berlin, and they end up unseating her for an Italian? Aha This could also just be Macron showing his teeth to extract concessions from UvdL.
Christophe Barraud�.. @C_Barraud
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The rise in German retail sales in March was fairly broad based by the looks of it. Early Easter might have helped. But the Q1 level was below the already weak Q4 level. So expectations of Q1 GDP edging higher rest on industry and construction (mild winter was a boost here).
My view on what Fed probably will do (but definitely needs to do) now on Bloomberg website. bloomberg.com/news/features/…
CPI in the German state, where the ECB resides, remained below target in April. Main news of the day!
As you all know, I’m typically very pro-EU/EZ, but there is something epically funny about an EU Commission led by a CDU pol accusing China of engaging in insufficient fiscal stimulus to spur local demand and relying too much on exports to spur recovery from a financial crisis.
There is a lot of chatter about Macron being very aligned with Draghi. But I see differences. Draghi in my reading is saying: we need EU market integration plus common tools to help firms exploit scale. Not quasi-national champions under the pretense of an EU marketplace.
In 2017, Macron’s call for EU strategic autonomy was prescient. The world has become more unfriendly to the EU’s naïve model of economic openness. Fair diagnosis - but in key areas his Sorbonne 2.0 speech presents a contradictory and unbalanced economic vision for Europe.🧵
Tldr for the not-so-brave: the legal push to central clearing of treasury repos will kill zero haircut trades, reduce leverage, so reduce credit risk, but also reduce the ability of the system to quickly arbitrage away anomalies in the market and correct them. But do read all!
A new centrally cleared era in repo markets is looming, which will cause an exodus from its shadowy yet most systemic regions. This may increase resiliency but also inhibit key trades gluing U.S. Treasury markets together. The Repo Leverage Squeeze™ is here... 1/
My latest for the @FT is about how economists could be more useful... 1st 300 clicks free to read on.ft.com/3Wg2pKQ
A thread long overdue (1/5): Despite rising investor optimism, this chart is what worries me the most. It shows that we may have entered the first episode in China's post-GFC history where credit demand from both households and corporates is falling at the same time.
Low 3M inflation in 2023 H2 gave a false signal of where trend was. Likewise, *for now* we should take the firm Q1 with a grain of salt. A simple YY, or a more sophisticated approach that filters out typical noise, yield similar answers: 2.8-2.9%, so ~ 2 1/2-3% w/ upward bias.
.@EmmanuelMacron warned today that the European Union and the European model of civilisation could “die” unless steps were taken in the next 5 years to create a European “power” which protected itself from Russian military aggression & Chinese & American protectionism. Thread 1/
Greek’s economic rebound in (painful) context on.ft.com/44bfeYR
La situation conjoncturelle reste terne, selon les enquêtes @InseeFr d'avril publiées ce matin. A noter dans l’industrie: pour la 1ère fois depuis 3 ans, les entreprises qui déclarent des difficultés de demande sont plus nombreuses que celles qui déclarent des difficultés d’offre
CAUTION: be careful extrapolating conclusions about future BLS revisions from the Business Employment Dynamics (BDM) data. Thread:
I’m waiting for comments from those claiming the right spreads are the result of @ecb manipulation.
The ECB continues to roll government debt off its balance sheet (quantitative tightening) - fastest pace for Portugal and Italy. via @DanielKral1
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Nice article by @RichFedResearch on the history of the Fed's 2% target. It took over a decade to build internal consensus. Many considerations that shifted with the changing FOMC composition as well as economic conditions. richmondfed.org/publications/r…
Oh boy and oh well… I mean they have to if they are to contain the trade deficit which by the way is now back to 2006 levels (as a % of GDP for goods ex-O&G). But this is a very fraught path and chances are high Trump geniuses will actually deliver a good 70s redux playing with…
Macron pushing for Draghi to replace Von Der Leyen as commission president will drive both Fintwit and CovidTwit bananas!
Psyched to be on today’s FT Unhedged with the great @katie_martin_fx! podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/unh…