Piet Haines Christiansen @pietphc
Director at Danske Bank // Focus on ECB and EUR Fixed Income markets. [email protected] Ex. ECB / ESM / Nordea. Copenhagen, Denmark Joined January 2018-
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European inflation is a tale of two stories.
Good chart below
Good chart below https://t.co/ban2c8uADy
The terminal rate (trough level of €STR forwards) is now standing at 2.52%, which is the highest since the start of the year. If we see further repricing of the ‘anchor’ this may also add further upside risk to longer-dated yields.
Markets are largely ignoring the stronger than expected PMIs this morning. One thing is markets are pricing 22bp for June cut (which is almost a done deal as mentioned by several GC members), but Dec24 pricing is less than 1bp change on the day. Dec24 priced at 77bp cut.
No new signals = no market impact On route to a June rate cut
Stay (April) vs. set (March)
ECB gives quite explicit indication of coming rate cut in June - unless they are surprised. No rate cut size given
ECB repricing is being driven by the US, which took a large leg higher following the US CPI Markets are pricing 0bp for today, 19bp cut by June and 74bp cut by year end Also, trough level of the €STR forward curve has shifted markedly higher in recent weeks-and is now at 2.37%
... and we 'intend to cut rates in June by 25bp'
The US CPI figure is pulling the ECB pricing higher today. Rate cuts in 2024 is now at 79bp.
Lane presents the updated wage tracker ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…
ECB's focus have recently been on domestic inflation (LIMI). In Feb that fell slightly (-0.05pp) to 4.46%. PCCI inflation rose by 0.2pp to 2.13%, first time above 2% since Oct, from 1.85% in Dec23.
ECB's Stournaras, one of (if not) the most dovish GC member are broadly in line with market pricing. Markets price 90bp this year. Stournaras: 'It is appropriate to do two rate cuts before the summer break, and four moves throughout the year seem reasonable.'
While we are all excited about the outcome of the framework review, I don't think its given that we will get details following the ECB's non-monetary policy meeting on Wed (which starts at 12:00 CET) In 2021, a statement was released around 2w before the outcome was published
A lot of focus on the underlying inflation and particular domestic inflation. Below are key underlying inflation gauges and here, look specifically for the LIMI (Domestic inflation)
Lagarde guiding for a June cut. ‘We will know a little more in April and a lot more in June’ @Lagarde
ECB staff projection changes are in line with expected, yet markers are reacting by adding 8bp of cuts for this year. ECB on route to deliver a rate cut this summer.
The market pricing heading into today's ECB meeting seems much alligned with the prevailing ECB/ Lagarde narrative. Doubtful that they see the need to send signals to change that. 0bp for today 4bp for Apr 22bp by June 92bp cut through to the end of 2024
Great piece! Must read for ECB watchers and STIR traders
Great piece! Must read for ECB watchers and STIR traders
The inflation prints released so far is consistent with the ECB narrative, hence on route for a June rate cut.
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Nothing personal France, but enough said.
Negative EA-US 10y real rate differential - a dissection across yield curve ➡️ 2y real rate diff low despite some nominal de-coupling ➡️3y2y / 5y5y real rate diff widened ❓Low EA growth regime relative to US? ❓Higher US r*/debt/growth with lots of uncertainty around it?
I have tried so hard - and I really want - to believe in a digital euro, but whichever way I turn it I come up short. What present or future problem will it resolve? How will it facilitate or enhance anyone’s life?
Live at 9:35 CET: Executive Board member Piero Cipollone opens the ECB’s retail payments conference, sharing his vision on how to create an innovative and integrated European market. Watch live ecb.europa.eu/press/intro/ev…
@pietphc 👇
Indeed, the front-end re-pricing is a global phenomenon, - but US seems most aggressive these days compared to other global peers. What is more: At the long-end, EA-US real rate differentials hit a record in absolute terms. Will they mean-revert?
Indeed, the front-end re-pricing is a global phenomenon, - but US seems most aggressive these days compared to other global peers. What is more: At the long-end, EA-US real rate differentials hit a record in absolute terms. Will they mean-revert?
All the market talk at the moment is about US "exceptionalism." There's just one catch. Markets aren't actually pricing any of that. Cuts got priced out for the Fed, but got priced out everywhere else as well. Markets are just pricing a global rebound, not US "exceptionalism..."
How does this work again? I am a bit out of practice.
1/ Update on EA sovereign debt and creditor structure: ➡️New @bundesbank analysis is out. ➡️Eurosystem remains the largest creditor in the Member States, accounting for more than one-quarter. 🧵
1/5 Und last but not least des aktuellen Monatsberichts: Update zur Entwicklung der Gläubigerstruktur der Staatsschulden. #Bundesbank #Monatsbericht. Das Eurosystem ist mit über einem Viertel weiterhin der größte Gläubiger der Mitgliedstaaten. publikationen.bundesbank.de/publikationen-…
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Der var ECB-møde i går, og så tager @pietphc butterfly på. Han tog også forbi Markedspladsen og fortalte om, hvornår renten kommer ned, lyt med danskebank.dk/erhverv/senest…
🇨🇾🇪🇺 Delighted to welcome a new member to the team this morning as Christodoulos Patsalides takes over as Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus and becomes a Governing Council member. Καλώς ήρθες, Χριστόδουλε!
Θα ήθελα να ευχηθώ στον νέο Διοικητή της Κεντρικής Τράπεζας της Κύπρου, @PatsalidesChris, κάθε επιτυχία στο σημαντικό έργο που έχει να επιτελέσει.
@herodotou_c Thank you, Constantinos, for being such a great colleague in the @ecb's Governing Council. It was a pleasure and priviledge working with you.
If you want to make a hawkish case here's your chart: services inflation reaccelerating in sequential terms and well above where you want to see it. Different seasonal adjustments can change the picture so best not take at 100% face value, but useful gauge for direction of travel
Winter’s over and the EU enjoyed a higher energy security and lower prices.
Now official: the EU has finished this heating season with record levels of gas in storages for the second year in a row - beating even the pandemic year 2020 when energy consumption tanked. Will this be the new normal?
@BobEUnlimited Was also part of Lane's presentation at the ECB watchers conference recently
Services inflation has globally remained stickier this cycle relative to past inflation peaks.
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