Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1
Co-host of @bsurveillance; Sign up for the newsletter here: https://t.co/4EBiPWI8En bloomberg.com/btv/series/blo… New York Joined April 2013-
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Citi's Andrew Hollenhorst still thinks the Fed will cut 100bp this year in the face of a hard landing: bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
The S&P just had its biggest monthly selloff since September, falling 4.16% in April. US Treasuries had their biggest one-month loss in more than a year. Traders are now pricing in barely one rate cut by December.
Citi's Rob Sockin says a hotter-than-expected employment cost index, which rose at the fastest pace in a year, is like "a bad dream" for the Fed. Yields on 2-year Treasuries jumped back through 5%.
Evercore's Emanuel: A big risk this week is when someone asks Powell: "Could you see the Fed’s next move as being a rate hike under any circumstances?” How he answers "goes a very long way toward determining whether the correction continues sideways or retests the lows."
“The sound that you hear is a narrative cracking.” Economists are rejecting the “immaculate disinflation” idea since the disinflation piece isn’t really happening right now. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Almost any way you slice it, inflation has been re-accelerating over the past three months.
Traders are now only pricing in one rate cut this year, and not until the end of it. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
"The pivot party is over:" Pimco's Tiffany Wilding. But as eToro's Ben Laidler said, there are other places to make money - like earnings. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Yields on 10-year Treasuries have been above the S&P 500 earnings yield for three straight weeks. This is the first time we're seeing this since 2002: Jonestrading's Michael O'Rourke
BofA credit investor April survey: "Investor camps are now: 45% soft landing, 40% no landing and 7% hard landing (7% unsure)...Inflation remains the #1 investor worry, and rising....Central bank policy error is the #2 concern."
Average US gasoline prices have reached $3.68, the highest since October and up from a December low of $3.07.
P&G is on track to boost its prices for a sixth consecutive year, and in the latest quarter they came in 3% higher than a year earlier. Netflix is going to rely on price increases to juice profits. Inflation is not dying yet.
Stock funds just saw their biggest two-week outflow since Dec. 2022 as higher rates bite into risk appetite: BofA and EPFR data. Michael Hartnett's team wrote that good economic news is now bad news for stocks, a shift in mindset from the first quarter when “good news = good.”…
Sven Henrich @NorthmanTrader
472K Followers 38 Following Founder: NorthmanTrader. Financial Market Strategist. Macro & Technical Analysis. Keeping it real. To subscribe: https://t.co/rmRFFvMRaH…Jim Bianco @biancoresearch
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3K Followers 113 Following Market Strategist/Portfolio Manager/Peloton Rider/Love a Good Mystery/Rice Owl and an AggieTesla Intern Leaving for @bsurveillance @FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 @ai @Meta #AI #Meta @opinion @business @tomkeene
Based on the statement, how hawkish was the much anticipated "hawkish pivot" by the Federal Reserve today? More hawkish than what the Fed signaled previously; Less hawkish than where the markets had gotten to on the basis of recent inflation data; and I worry that, given…
The disjunction between economic fears and reality is astonishing. Have we just stopped talking about reality altogether?
US & euro area inflation are now similar--despite the fact that the U.S. economy has been growing much more strongly than the euro area. The U.S. was much higher, then it was Europe's turn, now both are down & roughly convergent (euro area a little higher, likely not for long).
GDP growth came in a bit below expectations at a 1.6% annual rate in the first quarter. But much of the slowdown was in non-inertial items like inventories (-0.35pp) and net exports (-0.86pp). The better signal of final sales to private domestic purchasers was 3.1%.
Agree @lisaabramowicz1 there is risk everywhere. People who say this is new never played Oregon Trail aphlblog.org/the-diseases-o… Stay in your room or carry on...... Always Carry On is the answer. #LiveTVchat @BloombergTV
@lisaabramowicz1 Agreed on Boeing planes! You are more likely to get trampolled on by a horse in Central London now than a plane etc etc....🐎
@lisaabramowicz1 here’s my latest dog video. Aspen aka Deer
“.. Operating margins .. were crushed to 5.5%, the lowest level in three years and even lower than those of $GM. .. $TSLA has also been building more vehicles than it has sold for most of the past two years, .. last quarter’s excess was the biggest by far.” @liamdenning…
With TikTok Ban Looking Likely; Who Can Acquire This With/Without Algorithm? The likely buyers for TikTok would be Microsoft, Oracle given past interest/strategically a fit. Private equity would have many bidders. Forced sale would be without algorithm in our view given China
John Williams, NY Fed President ... Note the keyword below ... HIKE(!) ... he said it out loud! --- *WILLIAMS: RATE HIKE NOT BASELINE, BUT POSSIBLE IF DATA WARRANTS *TREASURY YIELDS EXTEND CLIMB AFTER WILLIAMS COMMENTS ON RATES
Core CPI coming in very hot for the third month in the row. The numbers are not kind to the thesis that January was a seasonal anomaly. 12 months: 3.5% 6 months: 3.2% 3 months: 4.6% 1 month: 4.6%
Looks like Saudi Arabia's balance of payments breakeven oil price (oil price that avoids a current account deficit) is now close to $85 a barrel. No wonder NEOM has been scaled back ... 1/
Was kind of surprised by this: China's holdings of US financial assets, as a share of China's GDP, are back down to where they were when China joined the WTO ... 1/
@lisaabramowicz1 Also @johnauthers showed that, this morning
@lisaabramowicz1 @tomkeene How about never mattering? Is never good for you?
I'm breathing again...MLB just unanimously approved the deal! @Orioles, the Next Chapter has begun! Go O's!
@lisaabramowicz1 I think the doubts about the future of relations between China and Western companies are mutual. Not only Chinese have started to buy more local products, but foreign companies have also shifted capital out of China at unprecedented rates. The primary beneficiaries have been…