mudchute fox @mudchutefox

personal trading diary. talking to myself so... you got it Joined January 2020

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mudchute fox @mudchutefox

21 hours ago

LT stuff worth bear in mind: - JPBs rising yields & JP Institutionals balance sheet - USD/USD assets safe haven role (ASW spreads) & carries into US assets - FED's independence perception (USD) - ECB's long role of closing spreads (EUR) vs BoE

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Gianluca c1 bis @gianlucac1bis

a week ago

There is an enormous risk that the long end debases if PCE and CPI are showing further upward trend Equities are gonna be vunerable also if long end debase together with the inevitable slowdown of earnigs as tariffs begin to weigh on numbers 4/n @ThManfredi @Phastidio

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Ernie Tedeschi @ernietedeschi

a month ago

The -253K 2M downward revision to payroll employment is the largest since at least 1979, other than April 2020.

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dMacro/dBS @dMacro_dBS

a month ago

We all love to extrapolate moves in TIPS breakevens, especially us geeky rates folks. Here’s my 2c: TIPS are primarily a LAGGING (and shitty, excuse my French) cyclical asset. Credit spreads are at all-time tights, equities are at record highs, the ratio of cyclicals (exc.…

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Phil Magness @PhilWMagness

a month ago

Update for the Tarrif-Bots who claim this proves domestic retail prices did not increase: Harvard Pricing Lab allows you to further separate domestic retail goods into tariff-responsive and non-responsive subsets. Turns out tariff-responsive domestic prices rose with imports.

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Gianluca c1 bis @gianlucac1bis

a month ago

2) US consumer pay tariffs, so CPI goes up in the USA by 1.5%-2% in the short run 3) a mix of the 2 in all of the above i am not sure stocks are a buy at current valuations see ya 2/2 @Phastidio @ThManfredi @INArteCarloDoss @degiorgiod

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KKGB @INArteCarloDoss

2 months ago

I am not sure many in the Administration understand that they are at a real risk of losing control over the long end. The OBBB toxic policies mixed with rogue tariffs currently borne mostly by American companies and Consumers is a disaster waiting to happen. 1/3

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Simon Ree @simon_ree

2 months ago

A steeper yield curve is coming. Why? 1) The current budget deficit is ~7% of GDP and the OBBB effectively locks those deficits in for years. Higher deficits => large supply of duration, which could drive up term premiums 2) The current ~$350b run-rate for tariff collections is…

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Patrick Saner @patrick_saner

2 months ago

Japanese life insurers were heavy buyers of ultra-long JGBs ahead of new solvency rules (starting April 2025), which require market-consistent valuation and stress testing. That regulatory-driven demand has now largely plateaued. A key anchor at the long end is gone, for now.

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Albert Edwards @albertedwards99

2 months ago

The UK government has set themselves up for a market rout. The bond vigilantes are pissed and looking for a victim to kick. The US, France and Japan may be in a worse fiscal position but they have protection. Fiscal incontinence may be widespread, but the UK is the weakest link.

©️redit From Ⓜ️acro to Ⓜ️icro @Credit_Junk

2 months ago

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Brad Setser @Brad_Setser

2 months ago

Taiwan is shaping up as a test case for how currency management enters in Trump trade deals. CBC pretty clearly blocked appreciation in q2 and thus meets the criteria to be named as a manipulator. & no real signs to date re: how fx intervention enters into the new deals 2/2

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Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA

2 months ago

It was such a strong payroll report that the index of aggregate hours worked in the private sector actually declined.

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Oliver Rakau @OliverRakau

2 months ago

Right on time ECB starts its verbal intervention... "We want a stronger role for the euro" but "We don't want a euro above 1.20". "We want more safe assets" but "We are worried about debt sustainability". "We want more capex" but "more loans may show policy isn't tight enough"

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Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA

2 months ago

June doesn’t look any better:

Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA

2 months ago

June doesn’t look any better: https://t.co/mP1c0dbFMH

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Mario Cavaggioni @CavaggioniMario

2 months ago

SZ: Germany to rise minimum wage 13.9% by 2027: "The statutory minimum wage in Germany, currently 12.82, is set to rise in two stages to 14.60 per hour by 1 January 2027. Initially, the minimum wage is to rise to 13.90 at the beginning of 2026." sueddeutsche.de/politik/bundes…

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LiveSquawk @LiveSquawk

2 months ago

Germany To Issue €19B More In Debt Than Initially Planned – German Finance Agency - To Sell Additional €19B In Federal Debt In Q3 - To Sell €15B More In Bonds, €4B In Bills - Plans Two Sales Of New 7-Yr Bond In Q3 Worth €8B

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Frederik Ducrozet @fwred

2 months ago

The ECB is getting closer to the neutral rate, but a stronger EUR could provide the doves with the justification to cut a little bit more, with a trough rate slightly below neutral.

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HFI Research @HFI_Research

2 months ago

Thanks to the recent oil price jump, US shale producers were able to hedge for the rest of 2025. We no longer expect US crude oil production to decline into year-end.