Neil Sethi @neilksethi
Managing Partner at Sethi Associates. Hopeless optimist. Reposts appreciated. Columbus, OH Joined December 2013-
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While the Bank of #Japan said on Friday they have no current plans for slowing bond purchases, it appears the #BoJ might already be doing so as net holdings fell in 1Q for the first time since 2008 w/analysts seeing QT starting as soon as July. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
While the Bank of #Japan said on Friday they have no current plans for slowing bond purchases, it appears the #BoJ might already be doing so as net holdings fell in 1Q for the first time since 2008 w/analysts seeing QT starting as soon as July. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/iW3qMj4h6j
BoA thinks Bank of #Indonesia's hike was a "one-and-done" to prevent inflation from a weak currency, and it will begin a cutting cycle in December assuming the #FOMC is as well.
ING says that while the #EU CPI read y'day keeps the #ECB on track for a June rate cut, it also gave some concerns about "stickiness" that will lead them to be "extremely cautious" about the path from there. think.ing.com/snaps/eurozone…
ING says that while the #EU CPI read y'day keeps the #ECB on track for a June rate cut, it also gave some concerns about "stickiness" that will lead them to be "extremely cautious" about the path from there. think.ing.com/snaps/eurozone… https://t.co/7otbZxpCyA
You know things are bad when Britons don't to go to the pub, although many are chalking it up to the unusually wet weather. Still, the net % of consumers spending more at #UK pubs fell to the least since they reopened post-pandemic.
You know things are bad when Britons don't to go to the pub, although many are chalking it up to the unusually wet weather. Still, the net % of consumers spending more at #UK pubs fell to the least since they reopened post-pandemic. https://t.co/Spdwl7ehYX
#UK saw money supply grow in March for the first time y/y in 9mths, a positive sign for the economy for those who believe in that relationship, although the most since Oct '22 found its way into savings products (so no multiplier effect there). bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
#UK saw money supply grow in March for the first time y/y in 9mths, a positive sign for the economy for those who believe in that relationship, although the most since Oct '22 found its way into savings products (so no multiplier effect there). bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/T5nXXW3M53
#Japan final Apr mfg PMI unch from flash read at "subdued" 49.6, an 8mth high, from 48.2 in March as production & orders impr'd though remained in contraction for an 11th mth. Prices "picked up...above trend" while confidence "remained relatively high". pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/Pr…
#Japan final Apr mfg PMI unch from flash read at "subdued" 49.6, an 8mth high, from 48.2 in March as production & orders impr'd though remained in contraction for an 11th mth. Prices "picked up...above trend" while confidence "remained relatively high". pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/Pr… https://t.co/BuynEEy13y
Nice article from @meanstoatrend on where things stand on a nice variety of indicators. His conclusion: "This bull market may be on hold, but it’s still a bull market." grindstoneintel.com/p/may-market-o…
Another full day tmrw in the US w/ADP, manufacturing & construction spending plus weekly mortgage apps & EIA petroleum inventories then the Fed meeting and press conference follow in the afternoon. Earnings also heavy although none of the top 10: $CVS, $QCOM, $PFE, $KHC, $MA,…
Quite a few int'l market holidays tomorrow (most for respective Labor Days).
Looks like I jumped the gun on the MACD crossover for #SPX as it turned lower after the decline. Also, I should note that even when we get the actual crossover, it can be weeks before the index follows.
Looks like I jumped the gun on the MACD crossover for #SPX as it turned lower after the decline. Also, I should note that even when we get the actual crossover, it can be weeks before the index follows. https://t.co/Nd4joGSa5b
Positive volume dropped sharply to just 12% NYSE, 33% Nasdaq. Issues were 17 and 26%. New highs-new lows dropped to 29 and -70.
Positive volume dropped sharply to just 12% NYSE, 33% Nasdaq. Issues were 17 and 26%. New highs-new lows dropped to 29 and -70.
#Dollar threatening to break out of bull flag. $DXY
Some other shares moving after hours. $PINS, $SMCI, $CHK, $CZR, $MDLZ, $FANG, $CLX via @CNBC
#FOMC rate cut exp's cont'd to fall through the day ending w/a cut by Sept now under 50%. A cut by November down to a 57% probability, and just 26 bps of #Fed cuts priced for this yr, so basically one, w/a 27% chance of no cuts this year.
Amazon shares modestly higher w/big beat on operating income & raise of midpoint of 2Q guidance with cloud rev's above exp's more than offsetting a guide lower in 2Q rev's as cost cutting efforts bear fruit. $AMZN bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Amazon shares modestly higher w/big beat on operating income & raise of midpoint of 2Q guidance with cloud rev's above exp's more than offsetting a guide lower in 2Q rev's as cost cutting efforts bear fruit. $AMZN bloomberg.com/news/articles/… https://t.co/DXXNsCBzZX
#SPX sector breadth very weak as might be exp'd w/a 6% day from $LLY all that saved us from having all 11 sectors red (health care was up +0.08%) but every other sector down at least -0.5%. Energy and communications had no green shares, RE had two. 8 sectors down at least -0.95%…
Callum Thomas @Callum_Thomas
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Deutsche Bank: "Considering strong Q1 earnings, and in line with DB’s upgraded house macro forecasts, we raise our 2024 EPS base case forecast from $250 to $258, implying 13% growth over 2023."
MORGAN STANLEY: After we upgraded large-cap banks earlier this year, “the median capital markets [Q1] beat was 11%. Every money center bank [we] cover beat on equities .. FICC .. debt and equity underwriting. Further, .. annualized volumes relative to nominal GDP for M&A, Equity…
$AMZN CEO @ajassy: "Companies have largely completed the lion's share of their cost optimization and turned their attention to new initiatives. Before the pandemic, companies were marching to modernize their infrastructure, moving from on-premises infrastructure to the cloud to…
#Canada: Trudeau’s $25 Billion Trans Mountain Gets Final Clearance to Ship Oil Canada Energy Regulator approves leave-to-open application Long-delayed project to start commercial operation May 1 #oott bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
6-month outlook from businesses rose in April to strongest level since February 2022 per Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
Relationship between oil prices and inflation expectations softening ... rolling 200d correlation between change in Brent crude and 5y breakeven rates is still positive but has continued to ease
A 1,000+ acre rezoning for a $14B data center project was just shot down in AZ. On a recent Odd Lots podcast, Brian Janous (ex-Microsoft top energy lead) talked about how future data centers are expected to receive more pushback from cities. @TheStalwart @tracyalloway
The project was expected to create jobs with salaries ranging from $80,000 to $250,000 a year. bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2…
MAYBE WE NEED MORE "FINANCIALIZATION" In today's @markets newsletter, I wrote about the new proposal from @ArnabDatta321 @alexbhturnbull and @vebaccount to build more liquid markets for minerals critical to the energy transition.
Coke's sales: $11.3 billion, up +11% in Q1 (est was +6.13%) Unit Volume (amount of stuff sold) was up a mere +1% how? Price Over Volume to the rescue prices up double-digits on a yearly % basis consumers ARE pushing back many firms just jack prices further to make up for it
Coke shares little changed despite a beat on top & bottom lines as it keeps FYI earnings unch despite a raise to FY organic rev growth on price hikes w/certain markets seeing "intense inflation." Global volumes +1% while N America was flat. $KO cnbc.com/2024/04/30/coc…
Intel shares are on pace to close out April down more than 30% — their worst month in over 20 years — as the chipmaker continues to struggle with executing a turnaround. trib.al/RapZOLr
MORGAN STANLEY: We expect inflation data “to reverse to downside surprises in April. .. Several data series indicate a rapid deceleration in rents. .. Financial Services inflation is linked with stock market returns, and the reversal in the $SPX in April will likely push this…
The rise in German retail sales in March was fairly broad based by the looks of it. Early Easter might have helped. But the Q1 level was below the already weak Q4 level. So expectations of Q1 GDP edging higher rest on industry and construction (mild winter was a boost here).
BREAKING: For the first time since February, the national average price of gasoline has seen a weekly decline, falling 1.9c/gal to $3.63/gal. We don’t expect to see much overall movement to the national average for this week, but many states could see small declines!
🇨🇦🛢️ MUST READ: Canadian barrels too sour for LA refinery palates @MakaiMarine put serious leg work into the true capacity of US West Coast refineries to process post-TMX Cdn heavy sour barrels. Sulphur content limits will prove the true limiting factor. makaimarine.substack.com/p/canadian-bar…
Leading oil field service firms are bullish on the outlook for natural gas demand in coming years even though the fuel remains stuck in the doldrums for now, with US prices near pandemic lows amid oversupply after a mild winter. argusmedia.com/en/news-and-in…
Inventory 📍556,000 single family homes unsold on the market 📍That’s up 2.4% from last week and 32% more than a year ago 📍There are 90% more homes on the market than in 2022 📍In 2022 inventory was rising much faster than it is now, as were mortgage rates. In the inventory…
Last time 10y Treasury yield (blue) was hovering around its current level in 2007, S&P 500's forward P/E (white) was in the 14-15 range ... today, it's at 20.2
GOLDMAN: “.. We expect the next few inflation reports to be softer and have therefore stuck with our forecast of cuts in July and November, but even moderate upside surprises could delay cuts further. .. We continue to think that rate hikes are quite unlikely because there are no…
MORGAN STANLEY: “.. We've seen a strong aggregate earnings surprise thus far during reporting season (9% for the S&P 500; highest since 2021). Price reactions have been more muted .. fits with our view that the market continues to be discerning when it comes to operational…
CAPITAL ONE CEO: ".. the U.S. consumer remains a source of strength .. labor market remains strikingly resilient. Rising incomes have kept consumer debt servicing burdens relatively low by historical standards. And when we look at our customers, we see that they have higher bank…
Trends for United States
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