Michael McDonough @M_McDonough
Chief Economist, Financial Products at Bloomberg LP (*ECAN Mastermind) [email protected] *views are my own* bit.ly/BloombergCentr… New York Joined August 2009-
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Link to the chart on @TheTerminal blinks.bloomberg.com/screens/g%20%2…
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The monthly mortgage payment for buyers of existing homes, based on the 30-year average mortgage rate, has risen again to $2,156, following a brief dip below the $2K mark. This represents a significant increase from the approximate $970 monthly payments seen back in 2020.
Household Survey vs Establishment Survey Employment, 3M Net Change: {ECWB P 660DCE492E3C0000<Go>}
The NFP 3-month net change decelerated for the first time since October 2023:
A breakdown of Construction NFP, which had its lowest growth in over a year:
NFP +175K in April, Below Estimates: The Details From ECAN<Go>
Exchange Rates, YTD Percent Change: $JPY
Chair Powell just brought up the Indeed Job Postings data, you can find it in on the Terminal at {ECST T INDDUOIS <GO>} or the alternative eco data dashboard at {WSL SHUTDOWN<GO>
The 1-month net change in Job Openings by sector from ECAN: #Construction #FinancialServices
JOLTS -- Job Openings, details from ECAN:
Michael McDonough retweeted
@M_McDonough Just did it. Wow. Awesome.
If you have a Terminal trying running "LPS 10659 <GO>". A fun surprise awaits!
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@M_McDonough (Dow Jones) -- Japanese financial authorities intervened in the foreign-exchange market to support the yen that had been depreciating sharply, people familiar with the matter said. Intervention just confirmed.
credit to Rich Handler for buying the dip
Found some deflation, Pleasure Boats & Aircraft:
WWIII enthusiasts get really disappointed on regular basis. Chart @M_McDonough
This chart makes it look like Covid was a pull forward event, but also contributed to a level shift upwards
The rising importance of non-store retailers to retail sales from ECAN: (March's Retail Sales data scheduled for release in 30 minutes)
The housing cost elements of #CPI also disappoint. Essentially unchanged; falling much more slowly than anyone anticipated.
the most telling CPI stat I've seen so far
Our CPI Diffusion Indexes indicate a rising trend in the percentage of the CPI experiencing monthly increases at an annualized rate exceeding 4%:
“Sometimes the parlor game gets a little ridiculous.” #CPI 🇺🇸
"It comes out to .359, which is a weak .4," says @JonathanJLevin. "We're not talking about a huge miss." "Sometimes the parlor game gets a little ridiculous," he adds. 🎥Tune in to our CPI live analysis here: x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
Shelter and transportation services accounted for the bulk of the increase - although nearly category was positive.
Breakdown of CPI. Core services contributed the most.
chart of the humility-at-8:29
Forecasting Non-Farm Payrolls Post-Pandemic Seems to Have Gotten Harder For Economists:
all I see is a line going up and to the right. that’s bullish
Ahh NJ fault lines: Seems to line up njmonthly.com/articles/jerse…
No component of NFP was negative. Tends to happen quarterly.
It is fascinating. And perhaps the key eco chart for the elections.
Having a side chat with @mckonomy about this chart and changing inflation dynamics based on today's Axios Markets (h/t @felixsalmon )
@M_McDonough Thank you. I will do some work on this.
@M_McDonough with the single best data viz on the @TheTerminal or @X capturing the repricing of risk along the curve this morning.
Impact of today's data on the yield curve:
L'argument de l'inflation supercore US (hors logement/énergie/alimentation) qui ralentit = ce qui a tiré le rebond des indices après 13h30 est valable si on regarde la variation mensuelle (m/m)...en revanche pas d'amélioration en donnée annuelle (y/y) Attention, je ne remet pas…
CPI and Core CPI breakdown (via ECAN)
Trends for United States
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