There is no real ceasefire, not in Iran, nor in the region. The Islamic Republic has already re-escalated its war on the Iranian people: mass arrests, executions, intimidation and widespread repression. Both the regime and Israel are clearly preparing for the next phase. The only actor choosing to maintain the illusion of a “ceasefire” is the United State; reassuring its public it won’t enter another war, calming markets, and keeping its transactional allies including China, Russia, and key Arab states like Qatar and Saudi Arabia content. If the world — especially Europe — doesn’t act now, it may soon face a full-scale conflict with global consequences.
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