Michael Higgins @MathGuyMike83

MathGuy and RockStar Manhattan, KS Joined January 2019

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Michael Higgins @MathGuyMike83

11 months ago

Oof, that was a pretty big whiff, Ann Selzer.

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Michael Higgins @MathGuyMike83

12 months ago

Finally, it seems likely that the female vote is going to be what ultimately decides this election. I haven't trusted polls to accurately adjust after the Dobbs ruling, and correctly identifying and adjusting for this effect in 2024 is key to producing an accurate result.

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Michael Higgins @MathGuyMike83

12 months ago

As the election nears, it seems likely that political polling firms will prioritize methodology that could produce a flawed result rather than taking additional care to ensure validity of their polls.

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Michael Higgins @MathGuyMike83

12 months ago

This weighting seems shaky at best, and completely wrong at worst. I cannot imagine, starting from such a skewed sample (towards males), that adjustment is going to factor in all relevant covariates to obtain an accurate result.

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Michael Higgins @MathGuyMike83

12 months ago

At that point, it appears that weighting is doing most of the heavy lifting in getting results. Clearly there was a giant issue in selecting a representative sample, and to adjust, Activote implemented weighting to re-weight demographics by 18% towards "female voters"

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Michael Higgins @MathGuyMike83

12 months ago

Example: Activote claims a +2 advantage for Trump: activote.net/trump-extends-… However, the polling population was 64% Male and 36% Female. Weighting was performed to produce results for a population with 46% Male and 54% Female.

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Michael Higgins @MathGuyMike83

12 months ago

The more I look deeper into the methodology of many political polls, the more I am unconvinced about the validity of these polls.

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Michael Higgins @MathGuyMike83

a year ago

ROYALS!

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Michael Higgins @MathGuyMike83

a year ago

I am not confident that the Detroit Tigers will ever lose again.

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Michael Higgins @MathGuyMike83

a year ago

Since "One Week" came out, can it ever be acceptable to begin a song with "It's been..."? Asking for a friend.

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Michael Higgins @MathGuyMike83

a year ago

Let's gooooooo!!! @KStateBSB and @ksu_analytics

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Michael Higgins @MathGuyMike83

2 years ago

When your genre of music is unique enough that Audacity gives up trying to classify it:

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Michael Higgins @MathGuyMike83

2 years ago

Not to brag, but I might have had an awkward encounter with Warren Buffet in an Omaha strip-mall parking lot about who had the right-of-way when backing out of a parking space this weekend.

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Michael Higgins @MathGuyMike83

2 years ago

It's been a while since I posted on social media. While I'm at it, Funtabi's album release show is tonight. I think it would be fun to see you all there: auntiemaes.com/events/funtabi…

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Michael Higgins @MathGuyMike83

2 years ago

Looking forward to having At the Drive In on my Spotify Year in Review after listening to One Armed Scissor on my computer, then muting my computer and forgetting that At the Drive In is still playing.