Gary’s Model @ModelGary

AFL/NFL model tracking for @SportsTalkGary #science “We bet on numbers, not teams.” 2024 AFL: +27.7u Joined January 2021

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Gary’s Model @ModelGary

2 days ago

CAR/JAX o46 LVR +3 -120 BAL -1 Love both offenses in first game. If weather, likely delay anyways. Really like Raiders this year and think NE might be getting a bit overhyped. BAL offense with great matchups against weak BUF D. Others: TB ML -110 IND/MIA o46 SEA ML +120

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Gary’s Model @ModelGary

2 days ago

TB ML -110 Sorry ATL fans! Make this one closer to TB -3. McGary being out is a major blow to ATL. Penix looked good at end of last year against poor defenses, let’s see here. ATL pass rush improved, but think they struggle to stop TB run game. This price has drifted too far.

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Gary’s Model @ModelGary

4 days ago

72-58 +10.7u Gold Coast +9.5 1u Didn’t trust my numbers yesterday with Geelong and over (both winners ofc 🙄) so I’ll take Gold Coast here. Think there’s some value here due to their poor end form and their travel.

Gary’s Model @ModelGary

5 days ago

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Gary’s Model @ModelGary

5 days ago

AFL 2025: 71-58 +9.7u Finals are here! Adelaide/Collingwood u160.5 1u Hoping for another low scoring grind between these two. Low-ish total but best two defenses in the comp and scoring is usually lower during finals. Adelaide in a close, low scoring one!

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Gary’s Model @ModelGary

6 days ago

MIA/IND o46 Two horrible secondaries playing on a fast track. Also think totals might be a bit low on average due to the new kicking ball rules (bonus future: o64.5 longest FG on year)). Also think MIA and IND offenses both being undervalued for a 1 game (mostly) healthy spot.

Gary’s Model @ModelGary

7 days ago

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Gary’s Model @ModelGary

3 weeks ago

Last round of the regular season! AFL: 70-57 +9.8u West Coast/Sydney o165.5 1u Western -20.5 1u

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Gary’s Model @ModelGary

4 weeks ago

Yuge slate for 2nd to last round in the Home+Away Season: AFL: 67-52 +12.8u Essendon/St. Kilda u169.5 1u Gold Coast -13.5 1.5u Carlton -13.5 1u Melbourne +22.5 1u Melbourne/Hawthorn o164.5 1u Adelaide/Collingwood u164.5 1u Richmond +10.5 1u Richmond/North u167.5 1u

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Gary’s Model @ModelGary

a month ago

59-51 +6.8u Hawthorn +7.5 .5u Hawthorn +1.5 (+120) .5u Hawthorn/Collingwood u161.5 1u Collingwood 3rd game in 11 days. 5 day break and Hawthorn needs this one bad.

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Gary’s Model @ModelGary

a month ago

54-49 +4.1u Western -15.5 1u #DogsGiants #AFLPicks #AFLTips

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Gary’s Model @ModelGary

2 months ago

53-49 +3.1u Just one this round: Melbourne/St Kilda o168.5 1u

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Gary’s Model @ModelGary

2 months ago

AFL: 50-45 +4.5u Let’s keep it goin’ Western +9.5 1u Western/brisbane o172.5 1u North/Sydney o173.5 1u Melbourne -11.5 1u St. Kilda +33.5 1u St. Kilda/Geelong o171.5 1u Fremantle/Collingwood u163.5 1u