Let’s analyze the last 3 federal elections… 170 seats, or more, out of 338 Parliamentary seats available is a majority government: 2015 • Justin Trudeau won a majority government with 184 seats… 2019 • Justin Trudeau won a minority government with 157 seats… 2021 • Justin Trudeau won a minority government with 158 seats… In Spring 2023 there was 5 by-elections scheduled, Justin Trudeau won 3 of the 5 by-elections, losing only 2 to Poilievre. This increased Trudeau’s total seat count to 160 seats (only 10 seats short of a majority)! This proves a momentum change back into Trudeau’s favour.
Canada also, now, officially has a population of 40 Million people… I went to the StatsCan website to find a breakdown of the population by province and Canada is still very much Liberal as the strongholds are where the population has grown and refugees/immigrants tend to vote for the party that welcomed them in… That said… About 67.5% of Canada’s population is in Eastern Canada (Ontario, Québec, Newfoundland, PEI, Nova Scotia, & New Brunswick)…mostly Liberal voters… About 30% of Canada’s population is in Western Canada (BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, & Manitoba)…mostly CPC voters, with a little NDP mixed in… About 0.33% of Canada’s population is in the north (Yukon, NWT, & Nunavut)…nearly always Liberal voters… That means Canada is made up of approximately 67.83% Liberal voters and only 30% CPC/NDP voters… Therefore, the more Canadians who vote the more likely we will see another Liberal government
@scott_robb In Canada, many/most seats are safe. Turnout will not change the results in those seats. Elections are determined by the shift of a few votes in a handful of ridings.
No seat is ever truly safe! Anyone who follows elections, or politics in general, knows that fact! Seats that have been Liberal for decades swing all the time…look at Ralph Goodale’s riding in Saskatchewan for example, he held that seat since the early 1980s and only just lost his seat in 2021… And, Anne Maclean’s seat in Edmonton-Centre which she held for over 20 years, but lost her seat in 2006!