Open Square Capital @OpenSquareCap
OSC is an asset management firm dedicated to a thematic value-oriented investment approach. https://t.co/Tefz59c3A6 openinsightscap.com United States Joined December 2015-
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$SCR.TO acquires final tranche of $MEG.TO shs, now owns 14.2%, max under CA law. Posturing continues as it faces off $CVE.TO. Both need to raise bids & see what shareholders want, cash vs. stock heavy. $242M breakup fee is par for course at 3% of deal value, it's fringe issue.…
Strathcona Resources has built a war chest of shares in MEG Energy, the maximum allowed under Canadian takeover rules, the company confirmed Thursday, in a bid to try and block rival Cenovus Energy's blockbuster acquisition deal. financialpost.com/commodities/en… $SCR.TO $MEG.TO $CVE.TO…
Strathcona acquires another 6.66M shares of $MEG.TO at an average price of $28.64. It owns 11.8% now, so another 2.4% to go, give or take 6.2M shares to go to hit the full 14.2%. $SCR.TO $MEG.TO $CVE.TO
And now it begins. It’s about to get spicy 🌶️ 🔥 in Alberta. Strategic acquisitions mean higher prices and this is strategic for the both of them. $CVE.TO $MEG.TO $SCR.TO
And now it begins. It’s about to get spicy 🌶️ 🔥 in Alberta. Strategic acquisitions mean higher prices and this is strategic for the both of them. $CVE.TO $MEG.TO $SCR.TO
Of course $MEG BOD accepted the bid, everyone under sun knows it's on par w/market price today, & isn't enough of a premium TODAY, but you can't go into 9/15 w/"no bid." So lock in a 2nd buyer. It's akin to a stalking horse bid. It sets the floor, now the real bidding begins.
MEG shareholder @ericnuttall (who balked at Strathcona offer) tells me Cenovus offer is "terrible price" and that he thought $MEG.to could get $30/share What happens next?
$SCR / $MEG . . . and now $CVE. Don't you just love M&A?? The $CVE bid is a call in poker. It's the price of admission right now. REAL bids come in now. Next up? Who raises first. $SCR with cash or $CVE with a bit of both? Think ball's in $SCR's court.
$SCR owns 23.4M shares of $MEG, likely with a basis somewhere ~$23/sh, so call it $7-10/sh consolation prize IF it loses out, or $160-240M assuming a counter-bid of $30 and above. Not unlike a break-up fee of 1-2%.
Retract yesterday's tweet, $CVE offer even at $30/sh for $MEG is accretive depending on stock/cash mix, if u then get tribal partnership, gets some uplift w/financing, so > accretive per share. Throw in tax benefits, $CVE offer (likely "3" handle) may beat out if we're right.
Thought $CVE would've sold assets b4 partnering for joint bid, but this may work (co-opting locals to decr NIMBY development risks). $MEG.TO still in play, and $SCR.TO will likely raise its offer at some point b4 this is over. Doubt $CVE's offer will blow out all suitors.
Thought $CVE would've sold assets b4 partnering for joint bid, but this may work (co-opting locals to decr NIMBY development risks). $MEG.TO still in play, and $SCR.TO will likely raise its offer at some point b4 this is over. Doubt $CVE's offer will blow out all suitors.
Suncor’s transformation under Rich Kruger is worthy of an HBS case study. The company’s outstanding Q2 highlights its strengths and potential as a long-term investment. $SU.TO hfir-ideas.com/p/idea-suncor-…
$FANG's comments on US oil produx'n likely peaked in near term getting attn. Con-call adds details; b/c of how DSU, drill pads, & wells completed these days, it's a ~12 month cycle time. Close to what we see in charts, rigs drop off, growth flattens. Takes time, but will come.

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