The Yanks are 6-1 to the Over in their last 7 games & 5-1 to the Over in Paxton's last 6 starts. NYY have gone a staggering 24-8-2 O/U on the road this season & the White Sox have cashed on the Over in 4 of their previous 5 gms.
MLB Daily Line Drive:
bit.ly/2wY8vmc
Also watching the Marlins/Pirates game - would love to fade Archer and his 7th percentile xwOBA if the value is right. Expect the line to keep moving his way.
Last play for now: Astros -220 vs Jays - I’ve played the Astros all series. You can’t throw a replacement level pitcher out against the ‘Stros and expect good things to happen, even with their injuries. Astros should be about -300
White Sox +200 vs Yanks - far too much value here. Yanks are overvalued given the lineup they’ve been employing and Paxton walk rate spike is concerning.
Next play: Tigers +145 vs Indians - pitching edge to Detroit, believe it or not. Bauer’s K’s are masking his elevated walk rate and some good fortune on balls in play. Fastball is getting smacked and curve has taken a step back.
Mets/Cardinals o9 (2u at -101) - Wind blowing out at 14 MPH and liked the value on the over in a vacuum (no pun intended). Wacha’s hard contact numbers are brutal.
Tigers +225: not a Bieber believer - K numbers have been good but when the ball is in-play he's smacked around. This leads to him being way too erratic. 4 games with multiple home runs allowed this year. 2 of last 3 games have been horrible. Bad home/road splits.
Mets -132: Pitching edge here is comical for this to basically be a coin-flip plus homefield. Syndergaard's statcast numbers are elite this year and Wacha might be even worse than his numbers suggest.
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