Martin Rodgers, CFA @SAValueInvestor
Analyst | Portfolio Manager | Investor Track and review JSE and globally listed companies Tweets not advice! Cape Town Joined March 2023-
Tweets2K
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Following130
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Not a bad day to be away from the office! Portfolio looking great with the commodity run but not as great as the views at Aquila Game Reserve. Have a great weekend, all!
The best money managers follow the process and ignore the noise and their own biases. If the process says buy, they buy even when it is uncomfortable. Same when it tells them to sell. Mastering that discipline will set you apart from 90% of other investors.
JSE Top40 TR this week: +1.11%. All thanks to the resources sector. The rest of the bourse just sat and watched. And bled. Here are the winners & losers. When last did we have +20% in a week?
Commodity run continues!
The last year has been tough for SA 🇿🇦 Resources given the drop off in commodity prices. Negative relative performance versus the ALSI reached its peak in late Feb (>23%) before a drastic recovery that brought it down to 7%. Hopefully, we can push a bit more out of this run!
US CPI came in marginally hotter than expected in March which will make the decision of the Fed to cut interest rates in June less likely. Market busy repricing the rate of interest rates in the US US March CPI +3.5% y/y & Core CPI +3.8% y/y/ (both just 10 BPS above estimates).
US equities (S&P500) futures took a dive after the results. Bond yields also pushing higher with a stronger dollar thanks to "rates higher for longer" argument shouting louder than the goldilocks scenario. Overreaction?
US MARCH CORE CONSUMER PRICES RISE 3.8% Y/Y%; EST. 3.7%
US MARCH CONSUMER PRICES RISE 3.5% Y/Y; EST. 3.4%
If the intraday trading of the S&P500 $SPX is anything to go by, the market is pretty unsure of the US CPI print today:
Hang Seng Tech Index up almost 3% at its peak today. Great summary by BBG on why Chinese Tech shares are gaining this morning: - More gaming approvals which will boost heavyweights such as Tencent - Chinese electric vehicle makers gain with analysts citing rising EV market…
For those interested in the difference between a concentration based and load based method of regulating SO2 emissions, here is a video from Sasol $JSESOL explaining it: youtube.com/watch?v=vcNDS2…
Today was a day for South African platinum shares! Sibanye $JSESSW +8.6% Northam $JSENPH +7.8% Impala $JSEIMP +7.4% Amplats $JSEAMS +5.1% Tharisa $JSETHA? Only up 0.5%!
Top gainers today: - Sibanye +8.6% - Northam Plats +7.8% - Sasol +7.5% - Implats +7.4% - Transaction Capital +6.7% Losers: - MTN -3.1% - Bid Corp -2.9% - Mr Price -2.0%
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I have been trying to understand the chip market for a while now, basically since Nvidia started running. So far: Nvidia design chips, made mostly by TSMC, using machines only ASML makes. Nvidia: 1 customer is >30% sales, top 2 customers >50%
TSMC operates near capacity. New capacity takes time (and capital) to come online. They need to buy machines from ASML. Have they been growing capacity to meet the forecasted demand? ASML recently missed on sales
Google has its own TPU chip design. AMD is working on a rival too. Intel trying to up their game too. Cloud providers aren’t going to 1. Wait around for supply and 2. Be completely reliant on Nvidia, especially when their customers are price sensitive
So, does demand materialize? Does Nvidia satisfy it all? Do others gain share? Is there a new technology? Trying to understand this space, any comments and material will be appreciated!
Played some league tennis yesterday, recovery dip and Two Oceans today. It’s extremely hard to beat Cape Town. This place is special😭
Sibanye is currently BACK in the JSE top 40 after falling out of the index in late January. Sibanye has a market cap of ~R72 billion. Shareholders, are you in the green yet?🤔
Costco raking in up to $200 million a month from the sale of 1-ounce gold bars. Only Costco members can buy online and see the price. Apparently stock sells out fast. There is now a limit of 5 units per member.
..share has gone minimum it’s a loss. There are many models but BLACK-SCHOLES is the respected model, wherever you go it’ll be used mostly..
..they can say the minimum that this share can go is X & the maximum it can go is Y for an example. If the shares are flying beyond the maximum the difference is yours as the CEO. If your shares go below minimum, it’s your risk, you pay because the...
but I know that whatever that’s on the table at this price, the difference is mine. A company sells & at month 37 & risks appreciated. Risk is you may take your shares while they appreciate & you lose lots of money. Third model is The Collar Model where they put a collar where..
They’ll say CEO is backing his or her strategy. Second is that the organisation gives you Options. In other words for 36 month they’ll say give you options, these shares are in company name. In month 37 you can elect & say I’m taking these shares, I have risked for 36 months..
..36 months in a company & say you can’t touch these shares. At month 37 you can sell the shares or keep the shares in the tax. Normally if you keep the shares the market supports you as the CEO because they see you believe in the organisation as a leader.
How are share based options calculated: There are standards in the industry for you to be credible & for you to be listened by the whole world, First option the Black-Scholes Model works. If you’re the CEO of the company & you arrive in the company they "lock" you in say for...
Everything gone red now. Even gold & oil.
ALSI flat but … - Top10 only RESI - Bottom10 all non-RESI -> banks, insurers, industrials, retailers, REITs all under the hammer today … irrespective quality … even R-hedges, despite ZAR ⬇️ a bit. But, Gold ⬇️ $2350 so will Monday be reversal of today ? 🤷♂️
Probably because LinkedIn was only launched in ‘03 😂
I passed my CFA in 2001 and did not share my ‘ journey ‘ on LinkedIn- that is my super power 😉
SA Inc savagely mauled today, Telecom coming under particular beating (WTF TKG?!), Zebra twins leading selloff in Banking. US markets: broad selloffs have begun as world turns attention toward ME crisis. It's gonna be a long weekend.
Insane 🤯 winners' card on JSE today. Goldies, PGMs and resources dominate proceedings as world markets celebrate a renewed commodity resurgence. No one has a coherent view why gold is rising and USD is rising and yields are rising *at the same time*.
Trends for United States
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