Samkon @SamkonModels

Predictive sports modeling. NFL '18: 75-47 (+43u) CBB '19: 77-49 (+34u) MLB '19: 304-292 (-15u) NFL '19: 29-27 (+4u) CFB '19: 39-28 (+10u) samkonmodels.com Joined August 2015

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Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

NFL has been in a rough stretch as of late, CFB has been on fire: NFL W7+W8: 3-7, -6.1u NFL YTD: 25-24, +0.7u CFB W8+W9: 13-6, +6.7 CFB YTD: 33-25, +7.0u Full YTD: 58-49, +7.7u

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For this week's write-up, I try to deconstruct why the Cardinals' offensive improvement might be a little overstated and why the Giants may have value this week as a result: samkonmodels.com/2019/10/17/nfl…

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Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

Starting to get questions about CBB with the season starting in three weeks. The same Doctor's Without Borders donation run will return in February, but I'll also be running plays for the full season. Here are the full details: samkonmodels.com/2019/10/15/cbb…

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Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

Week 6 went 3-3 for +0.14u bringing the season to 22-17 (56%) for +6.79u (11% ROI). Another free play write-up coming on Thursday👍🏼 PHI +3 -112 -1.12u❌ TEN +2.5 -108 -1.35u❌ SF +3 +104 +1.46u✅ ARI +2.5 -103 +1.10u✅ KC -4 +101 -1.10u❌ NYJ +7 -108 +1.15u✅

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Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

Finally had some time to put together a free play write-up for you guys. This week, I take a look at the surely to be divisive 49ers / Rams matchup: samkonmodels.com/2019/10/10/nfl…

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Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

Week 5 finishes 4-3 for -0.19u, season moves to 19-14 (58%) for +6.66u (12% ROI). ARI +3 +101 +1.57u✅ HOU -4 -106 +1.15u✅ NYG +5 -104 -2.08❌ TB +3 -107 -1.34❌ NYJ +14 -108 -2.40u❌ OAK +6 +104 +1.56u✅ SF -5 -107 +1.35u✅

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Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

To follow up on this, I've added a tab to the NFL tracker to show results. Been doing much better after a few early season tweaks, but need a bigger sample to be sure. I'll provide another update in the coming weeks. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

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Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

A nice 5-1 Sunday for +6.77u. TEN +3.5 -110 (2.02 to win 1.85u)✅ MIA +14.5 +102 (1.50 to win 1.52u)❌ BUF +7 -104 (1.98 to win 1.90u)✅ NYG -3 -115 (1.15 to win 1.00u)✅ DET +7 +101 (1.50 to win 1.52u)✅ TB +9 -106 (2.12 to win 2.00u)✅

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Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

Sunday goes 2-3 for -1.86u, with one play likely coming in tomorrow. Season sits at 10-9 for +1.66u. SEA -4 -103 (2.27 to win 2.20u)❌ IND -1.5 -107 (2.14 to win 2.00u)✅ OAK +8.5 -101 (1.52 to win 1.50u)❌ CAR +2.5 -103 (1.29 to win 1.25u)✅ CLE +3.5 (1.33 to win 1.30u)❌

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Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

The pup had surgery yesterday so I didn't have as much time to spend on this week's write-up, but still wanted to get something out for you guys. Here it is: samkonmodels.com/2019/09/19/nfl…

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Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

MNF play falls, bringing the season to 8-6 for +3.52u. Tracker has been added to the site on the Results dropdown, new free play write-up will be up on Thursday as usual. samkonmodels.com

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Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

Last week went 3-3 for -1.18u, so we are 8-5 for +5.44u on the season. On to Week 3!

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Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

5-2, +6.62u SEA +4.5 -106 (2.39 to win 2.25u) ✅ SF +2 +100 (1.30 to win 1.30u) ✅ JAX +9 -110 (1.76 to win 1.60u) ✅ GB -3 +108 (1.20 to win 1.30u) ✅ WAS +6 (1.63 to win 1.55u)❌ NO +2 -106 (1.06 to win 1.00u)❌ DEN +2.5 +104 (2.75 to win 2.86u) ✅

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Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

The AFC South showdown between the Jaguars and Texans is one of the most interesting games for me this week. Here's my write-up and a free model play for the game: samkonmodels.com/2019/09/12/nfl…

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Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

Here's my write-up on the Broncos/Raiders matchup. Wish I was 30 minutes quicker to the punch, my bad. samkonmodels.com/2019/09/05/nfl…

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Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

I just finished my weekly free play write-up an hour ago on the Broncos/Raiders and of course Antonio Brown gets suspended and the line moves by 2.5 points. Should I still release it / do you guys still want to read it?

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Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

To celebrate Labor Day and the start of the NFL season, you can use code LABORDAY to get $100 off the full season package. DM me with any questions! ▪️2018: 75-47-6, +43.1u (18% ROI) ▪️Full refund if season nets <5u ▪️Includes CFB ▪️Sent via Slack/email samkonmodels.com/product/nfl-mo…

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Samkon @SamkonModels

6 years ago

Been getting frequent questions about college football plays. I’ll provide them at first to NFL subscribers to track their performance, and if it goes well I will open it up to everyone through another charity donation effort like we did with college basketball. Stay tuned!