NFL analytics, betting insights, fantasy football analysis, game picks & props using advanced predictive models & data from Warren Sharp & a team of expertssharpfootballanalysis.comJoined August 2019
Walker’s first 5 games last year: 22.3 PPG
His final 6? 11.7 PPG
Efficiency cratered with injuries
But Kubiak brings outside-zone
Walker averages 4.7 YPC on those runs
Bounceback script is in play
sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/49ers-…
Illinois won 10 games last year
But it came against one of the softest schedules in the Power 5
Now they walk into Durham with a QB who crumbles under pressure
Duke? Top-15 in pass rush rate generated
+3.5 at home feels like the right side
sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/best-b…
Carl Cheffers takes Chiefs–Chargers
Home teams are 79-52 straight up since 2016 with Cheffers
Divisional home teams? 29-18 ATS
Kansas City walks into a sneaky officiating edge
sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/nfl-re…
The Chargers were the NFL’s best team ATS last year (12-4-1)
They’re also 0-11 straight up as underdogs the past two years
KC is laying -3 on the road Friday night
History says streaks don’t last forever
Full game preview: sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/charge…
Tyquan Thornton ran a 4.28 at the combine
Mahomes already hit him for 56 yards in preseason
The Chiefs have preached explosives all offseason
Now he gets a Chargers defense funneling targets inside
+2600 SGP has us leaning in...
sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/nfl-sa…
Iowa’s run game is missing its lead back
The QB transfer ran for 47 last week, but threw for just 44
Iowa State returns 8 starters on offense
Becht now trusts his arm — and his TEs
The Cyclones -3.5? That’s the bet
sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/best-b…
Chiefs open as 3-point favorites in Brazil
Mahomes + Reid: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in Week 1
Neutral site? 5-2 ATS since 2018
Chargers without Slater protecting Herbert
The edges stack up one way
sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/nfl-we…
Last year: these offenses ranked 97th + 113th in scoring
This year: both flipped to pass-first identities
Two new coordinators. Two new QBs.
Oklahoma plays fast. Michigan plays riskier.
44.5 points? Too low
Bet the over
sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/best-b…
NFL sides. NFL totals. NFL props.
All in? +54.98 units last season
That’s not variance
That’s volume + precision
A documented 19-year record backs it up
And 2025 lines are already live
sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages/
Chicago hasn’t beaten Minnesota in primetime since 2018
1–7 vs the Vikings the past four seasons
And they scored on just 2 of 17 opening drives last year
Against a defense that ranked 2nd in points allowed per drive
That trend looks alive
sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/viking…
Kelce’s numbers dipped in ’24
But 133 targets don’t lie
No Rice for 6 games
+950 to score first vs LAC
Rookie RB Hampton’s role expands
+135 anytime feels strong
» sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/nfl-fi…
The Ravens + Bills
1st + 2nd in red zone TD rate last year
74% and 72% conversion
Baltimore games hit the over 76.5% of the time
Two MVP QBs
Two of the league’s best defenses
Sunday Night could be fireworks
sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/ravens…
Kelce with Rice on the field last year?
Targeted on 16% of routes
Without him? 24%
Rice is suspended Week 1
The Chargers allowed 5.39 catches per game to TEs
5.5 feels too low
At plus money, Kelce over looks sharp
sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/nfl-be…
The NFL season kicked off
But the free agent pool is loaded
WRs like Diontae Johnson and OBJ
EDGE help in Za’Darius Smith and Jadeveon Clowney
And a Pro Bowl safety in Justin Simmons
The tracker updates daily: sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-f…
Rich Hribar dropped his Week 1 ranks
Hurts headlines a brutal NFC East opener
Lamar takes on Buffalo
Mahomes heads overseas
And Caleb Williams makes his first fantasy start
The full slate is here:
sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/fantas…
Mahomes threw a career-low 6.8 Y/A last year
Herbert posted a career-best 7.7
But in two head-to-heads?
Neither topped QB16 in fantasy scoring
That’s the type of detail buried in The Worksheet
Full Week 1 breakdown:
sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/charge…
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