Evgeny Slavutsky @SlavutskyEvgeny
Grain market analyst with 30 years experience fenilgroup.ru Israel Joined May 2017-
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#Bullish factors: low #wheat stocks in #India (7.5 million), the developing #drought in the southern US and Russia, the consequences of #shelling of Ukrainian ports and the forecast of an increase in ##wheat imports by Egypt with the financial stability on an approved IMF loan .
#Overcoming the $6\bush wheat futures ($220/t) is the maximum that active #“bullish” factors could provide. If there are no fresh ones, a #correction is possible in early May if there are reports of improved crop forecasts in the main #wheat exporting countries
Преодоление #уровня 6 долл\буш. пшеничных фьючерсов (220 долл\т) — максимум, который могли обеспечить активные «бычьи» факторы. Если свежих не возникнет, коррекция возможна в начале мая если пойдут сообщения об улучшении прогнозов урожая в главных экспортирующих пшеницу странах
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The #Chinese will certainly #respond in a mirror way, most likely starting with #soybeans, the most #vulnerable part of US #exports.
Another #factor that casn powerfully #influence the agricultural market could be the implementation of the project, a sharp #increase in US customs #duties on Chinese steel and aluminum products from 7.5% to 25%. If it is implemented, it will be a resumption of “trade #war.”
Китайцы непременно #ответят #зеркально, начав, скорее всего, с #соевых #бобов, самой уязвимой части экспорта США.
Eще #фактором, мощно #влияющим на аграрный рынок, может стать реализация проекта администрации, резкого #увеличения в США таможенных #пошлин на Китайскую стальную и алюминиевую продукцию с 7,5% до 25%. Если он будет реализован – это возобновление «торговой #войны".
It's less than half the average for the previous ten years. The "devastation" is partly due to preparations for the general elections that began yesterday. The government, #sold 10 mln tons from reserves, to #stabilize prices for wheat within the country for the “right #choice.”
Это меньше #половины средней за предыдущие #десять лет. «Опустошение» связано частично с подготовкой к начавшимся вчера всеобщим выборами. Правительство, #продав 10 млн.т из запасов, стремилось такой мерой #стабилизировать цены на пшеницу внутри страны для «правильного #выбора».
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This is great article to read and think again of what russian presence is in Africa, apart from official statements reg the food supply
Africa’s coup belt spans the continent: a line of six countries crossing 3,500 miles, from coast to coast, that has become the longest corridor of military rule on Earth nytimes.com/2023/07/29/wor…
Человек, не имеющий семьи, живущий с любовницей и никогда в жизни не показывающийся ни с детьми, ни с внуками, учит нас тому, как важна семья. Человек, приведший страну к дичайшему падению рождаемости, болбочет про семьи со множеством детей. Человек, сделавший культ войны и…
Russia has promised “free grain” to 6 African countries allegedly. Selfless gesture or geopolitical influence… 🤨? As is said “there is no such thing as a free lunch”
BREAKING: Russia's Putin has promised to provide six African countries with free grain
I hope there would be still a lot of those who will stay in our Danube waters🤞🏻
@RighettiJoe Yes sure, there are some vessel owners who are not going there anymore, but most of them still do. Its always a price question. risk/reward
Russia has floated a plan to supply Russian grain to Africa 🌍 & cut out Ukraine 🇺🇦 … Putin has proposed a replacement grain deal whereby Qatar 🇶🇦 would pay Moscow to ship grain to Turkey 🇹🇷 which would distribute to “countries in need” (Qatar & Turkey haven’t agreed )
Russia floats plan to supply its grain to Africa and cut out Ukraine on.ft.com/3q68pId
so it seems it was farmstock destroyed. Far from the port area
So this night AGAIN Odesa was attacked, according to officials, grain terminal was hit, but no further info for now 😑
The most successful people I know in the grain business spend almost no time trying to figure out anything about the futures market. They make money on basis trading skills, service, and relationships. Turns out you can sustain that model for a long time.
So many wrong takes on the Black Sea #graindeal. Here’s what you need to know if you trade #wheat (and #corn) as of today: * Odesa shipments are over. The chance was high that the Kremlin would stop the grain deal and show everyone that they should stay away from Odesa. We gave…
Statement by Ukraine’s ministry of infrastructure on Russia’s attack on Odesa port, and images posted of the damage.
@hedgeamigos I already have two suppliers who first nominated Kavkaz as loadport, asking to switch my vessel to Novorossiysk. But for a Force Majeure i see not much ground. keep in mind, that most Russian sellers sold with Kavkaz/Novo in their option in order to optimize shipments
This is what happened. Kernel and Viterra grain terminals. I’m waiting for you, “russia defenders” and those saying Russia cares about the world food security blah blah, explain me why then they doing it?
For two nights in a row, rf has been conducting targeted missile attacks on grain terminals in ports involved in the #BSGI. The infrastructure of International & Ukrainian traders and carriers was damaged. The terrorist state is at war not only w/ 🇺🇦, but also w/ the people of…
@TraderGJ hey... lots of Russian oil has been shipped to India 🇮🇳 refined and shipped back to Europe.. can happen. The market is flexible and fungible. Supply will find the demand somehow...
Curious, what if friendly Turkey buys and then ships that to unfriendly UK 🤔
Russia might remove export duties for grains/ oilseeds / vegoil if shipped to so called "friendly nations" So countries like Egypt 🇪🇬 could buy Russian wheat even cheaper & India can save $ on sunoil imports Wheat 🌾 etc to be used as a weapon of geopolitical influence 🗳️... ?
over night, additional grain terminals were hit an damaged! This time in #Chornomorsk. Seems like @KernelUkraine Terminal TBT has slight damages at conveyors and laboratory and dryer at Viterras IZT Terminal got damaged! #oatt #AgTwitter
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