Split Ticket @SplitTicket_

Political analysis at your fingertips. By @lxeagle17, @hwlavellemaps, @Thorongil16, @politicsmaps, @maxtmcc | 🎤 ✉️ [email protected] split-ticket.org Joined November 2021

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Split Ticket @SplitTicket_

3 weeks ago

Join us. theargumentmag.com

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Split Ticket @SplitTicket_

3 weeks ago

Deconstructing our Wins Above Replacement model and explaining how it works, for all curious. (And why progressives don’t do as well in it) split-ticket.org/2025/08/15/dec…

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Split Ticket @SplitTicket_

a month ago

With the House up for grabs in 2026, candidate quality could be decisive. Both parties face challenges, but strong recruits may tip the balance in key races: split-ticket.org/2025/08/06/can…

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For our last piece with @PostOpinions, we take a look at how the Democratic Party’s base has changed since 2016 — and in area after area, the party’s voters have become more liberal across the board, even though its leadership has not always agreed. wapo.st/4mu6AMR

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Split Ticket @SplitTicket_

2 months ago

The Texas GOP is set to use an old trick: redrawing Democratic-held congressional districts mid-decade. With Trump urging action, legislators could redraw 2–5 seats—echoing the 2003 playbook and potentially changing the 2026 House calculus. Read more here: split-ticket.org/2025/07/15/tex…

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Split Ticket @SplitTicket_

2 months ago

Six House Democrats in New England significantly outperformed Kamala Harris with low-propensity voters. Their edge? Moderate, bipartisan profiles—centrist voting records that resonated in crossover districts in an age of brutal polarization. split-ticket.org/2025/07/09/how…

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Split Ticket @SplitTicket_

2 months ago

How did turnout look in the 2024 election? We break it down from a geographic and demographic perspective. split-ticket.org/2025/06/27/tur…

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Split Ticket @SplitTicket_

3 months ago

Split Ticket will be hosting a space to discuss the results of today’s primary elections in New Jersey as they come in.

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Split Ticket @SplitTicket_

3 months ago

The real reason Democrats can't compete for 60 Senate seats isn't just the "structural bias of the Senate". It's because ticket splitting collapsed over the last decade. Using our WAR models, we can show how the impact of candidate quality has plummeted. split-ticket.org/2025/06/07/the…

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Split Ticket @SplitTicket_

4 months ago

From the latest iteration in our collaboration with @PostOpinions: Catalist's data shines a new light on 2024, and suggests the election was even wilder and much more counterintuitive than the exit polls (and the takes around them) would imply. wapo.st/4k6xwBJ

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Split Ticket @SplitTicket_

4 months ago

Voters do not like Democrats. But it might not matter much for 2026. In our latest piece as part of our Washington Post collaboration, @maxtmcc and @Thorongil16 explore the odd phenomenon of midterm backlash and explain why current numbers can mislead. wapo.st/3Fppkx3

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Split Ticket @SplitTicket_

4 months ago

ICYMI: Split Ticket continued its collaboration with the Washington Post with a piece on how Trump's gains were disproportionately large in immigrant neighborhoods. wapo.st/4jbc1yg

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Split Ticket @SplitTicket_

5 months ago

The story of Wisconsin's Supreme Court election was turnout — while the state went from Trump +1 to Crawford +10 within 6 months, the large majority of that shift was driven by changes in who was voting, rather than voters changing their minds. split-ticket.org/2025/04/21/how…