Merlin Strategy @StrategyMerlin
Polling and Strategic Insights | [email protected] | BPC member merlinstrategy.com Joined April 2025-
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🚨New @ukonward and @StrategyMerlin polling shows that over half of the public either have "no trust at all" or "not a lot of trust" in the criminal justice system. Specifically, over two thirds of Reform voters have low trust in the criminal justice system. More details👇 🧵/
Interestingly with Dorries' defection in the news, the public overall do not believe that "Reform UK is just a party for previous Conservatives"
Brits do think that Farage... • has too close ties to Donald Trump • wants to privatise the NHS • is not experienced enough to be PM
Overall the public do *not* believe that Farage... • is not tough enough on immigration • is racist • "Will just be more of the same" • is out of touch with working people But...
🧵of new @StrategyMerlin polling for Reform Conference covered in @spectator What Brits do and don't think is true about Nigel Farage
Bad news for the Conservatives: whilst 41% think Farage looks like a PM in waiting, only *25%* say the same of Kemi Badenoch
NEW @StrategyMerlin polling in @politico 41% believe Farage looks like a PM in waiting, 45% disagree Interestingly this means Farage matches Starmer's peak on this metric recorded by yougov (40% thought Starmer looked like PM in waiting in the 2024 election campaign)
New @StrategyMerlin polling ahead of Reform conference looking at voters' hesitations on Farage
New @StrategyMerlin polling ahead of Reform conference looking at voters' hesitations on Farage
Presenting @StrategyMerlin X 5654 report looking at the voting coalitions making up our fragmented electorate Particularly interested in the tensions within Labour's 2025 coalition: United on economy, divided on immigration. Makes the Budget even more high stakes for Gov.
Reform have led in 92 consecutive polls, but can they grow their support and sustain their momentum over the next four years? Join us in Birmingham for an in-depth look at what voters really think about Reform with @JAHeale @ZiaYusufUK @jtworr
So more thantwice as many voted for Polanski than even voted in 2021
New @StrategyMerlin 5654 📊 paints challenging picture for Lab ahead of Budget - Cost of Living Top issue, > 1 in 3 say "getting by, but it's tight," - even 4 in 10 earning > 80k say CoL biggest issue - 51% say income taxes too high, only 14% say too low
New @StrategyMerlin 5654 📊 paints challenging picture for Lab ahead of Budget - Cost of Living Top issue, > 1 in 3 say "getting by, but it's tight," - even 4 in 10 earning > 80k say CoL biggest issue - 51% say income taxes too high, only 14% say too low
Great to be back on @BBCRadio4 #TWT speaking to @BBCJamieCoo about Farage's immigration speech + why it makes sense that Reform are leaning in to the issue: - immigration now #1 issue for voters - the issue is the biggest driver of Reform's months-long lead in the polls
Reform's council by-election successes rocket fuelled since locals. From David Cowling: July 24 - locals: Reform + 14 seats in council by-elections May 2025- now: Ref + 33 Since May 2025, borh Conservatives and Labour have lost two-thirds of the seats they were defending.
🚨 New from @ukonward: Today we launched Trustfall — my report on how different generations consume news. Using @StrategyMerlin polling, we found that young people trust social media more than newspapers. We also found they engage with more news overall than older gens. 🧵/
NEW @ukonward report based on @StrategyMerlin polling "Trustfall" looking at generational differences in news consumption Young people trust social media more than newspapers + although still engage more with traditional outlets than you might think ...
NEW @ukonward report based on @StrategyMerlin polling "Trustfall" looking at generational differences in news consumption Young people trust social media more than newspapers + although still engage more with traditional outlets than you might think ...
🤔 'Just half of those who voted Labour in 2024 have a clear or broad idea of what Starmer stands for, down from 75%.' 🌹 How worried should Labour be about Your Party? ✍️ @Scarlett__Mag of @StrategyMerlin looks at what the polls show: labourlist.org/2025/08/jeremy…
Coming up on @BBCRadio4 Westminster Hour for @StrategyMerlin 📻
I wrote for @LabourList about Keir Starmer, Jeremy Corbyn, and the threat Labour faces to its left labourlist.org/2025/08/jeremy…
1 in 5 Brits say they'd participate in political violence if things get worse. 1 in 5. There is deep, worrying, anger across this country but politicians aren't paying attention. They're more worried about keeping civil servants happy than about fixing the country. They need…
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