Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research) @TSOH_Investing
Founder of the TSOH Investment Research Service Long-term equity research with 100% transparency https://t.co/AVAjy2LgI1 thescienceofhitting.com Joined February 2017-
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Paramount TTM Adjusted EBITDA $PARA
Today's TSOH post - "Meta: Taking Big Swings" "The day I stop trying to build new things, I'm done... It’s not even a question for me, whether we're going to take a swing at building the next thing."
$META Capex vs. Pat Dorseys largest position. "They say they are going to spend $14 billion on Capex, double last years Capex. We can’t figure out what they are going to spend it on and we think its basically political cover.” - Pat Dorsey
$TMUS Q1 FY24 call - "Our fixed wireless strategy has always been about selling excess capacity, where we predict normal cell phone usage won't suck up that 5G capacity.... We originally said we saw it leading to about 7 - 8 million customers. We don't have any updates on that."
https://t.co/XWwatfU8q7
YouTube TTM Advertising Revenues up to ~$33 billion; inclusive of the vMVPD and Premium / Music, YT total revenues are likely ~$50 billion FY23 10-K: "People thought we were crazy when we acquired YouTube"
Microsoft's revenues crossed $1 billion for the first time in FY 1990 Over the ensuing 34 years, revenues increased by ~17% annualized
$MSFT Cloud run rate gross profits surpassed $100 billion this quarter
Microsoft Cloud run rate revenues up to ~$140 billion Microsoft's total revenues in FY20 were ~$143 billion
When YouTube TV launched in 2017 (as a skinny bundle), Comcast had ~23 million U.S. MVPD customers. Amazingly, YT TV is on track to have a larger customer base than Comcast's pay-TV business within the next two years.
When YouTube TV launched in 2017 (as a skinny bundle), Comcast had ~23 million U.S. MVPD customers. Amazingly, YT TV is on track to have a larger customer base than Comcast's pay-TV business within the next two years.
From "The Next Peak" (Nov 2023): "If you can’t live with Zuck’s Meta vision, your best bet is either to change your expectations or to sell the stock." $META update coming Monday morning for TSOH subscribers
Over the past three years, Comcast's pay-TV subs have declined by ~30%
Comcast TTM Broadband Net Adds $CMCSA
Over this period, revenue per average $META DAP increased >50%
$META Q1 FY24 TTM FCF of ~$48.6 billion (trailing five-year CAGR: +25%)
Good chance to read @TSOH_Investing piece on $NKE. He covers previous guidance misses, the move back to wholesale and commentary from CEO John Donohue. thescienceofhitting.com/p/bold-disrupt…
Good chance to read @TSOH_Investing piece on $NKE. He covers previous guidance misses, the move back to wholesale and commentary from CEO John Donohue. thescienceofhitting.com/p/bold-disrupt…
$META TTM Revenues (trailing five-year CAGR of +19% per annum)
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⏰ First day! ⏰ 📧 Inbox open for gossip, intros, etc: maria dot [email protected] 📞 Cell, signal, whatsapp same as always: 6033197139
Thrilled to share I’m joining the @FT as U.S. deals and activism correspondent, starting later this month.
I first reported Friday that the Paramount board was considering removing CEO Bob Bakish and replacing him with a committee of divisional heads. The company just announced the changes.
To calm everyone down, Paramount Global has chosen the soothing Masters theme song as its pre-earnings call music.
@InnocenceCapit1 @TSOH_Investing @ChrisPavese Yep, I don’t view it as alarming. Stunning perhaps just based on the size of the spending, but not alarming. I just think the rapid increase in capital will lead to lower returns going forward. I’m not even suggesting it will be bad for them; and I say this as a long term owner…
@TSOH_Investing @JohnHuber72 @ChrisPavese it is stunning. not sure i find it alarming (yet), only time will tell. depends on how much duration/ecosystem control the spending results in. i can see scenarios where it works out very well, and some where it doesn't go so well (but all of these cos generate massive ocf rn).
Capital intensity inflections end well?
@JohnHuber72 @ChrisPavese One more that you'll probably find interesting 👍
$KNSL Re-sharing this to the top of your Feed today. This will be the last time! I'll go through and provide an IRR Calculation with assumptions next week or the week after CC high growth/quality guys: @JonahLupton @drowsyinvestor @TSOH_Investing @investing_bear @Invesquotes
NEW POST: Kinsale Built for Efficiency and Profitability $KNSL In this post I dive deep into the company's competitive advantages, the E&S market as a whole, the Insurance Supply Chain, and diagnose why this Carrier will continue growing Market Share! Link below!
@JohnHuber72 @TSOH_Investing @ChrisPavese Those capex numbers are just insane. I don’t think this trend can be sustainable. AI only contributed 7% of Azure’s total growth rate.
One counterpoint to this idea that intangible investments are causing GAAP earnings to be understated at companies like $MSFT... Their capex is far greater than their D&A currently (e.g. MSFT D&A is ~15b but they will spend 50b+ on capex this year). So perhaps the R&D spend…
4/ The sizeable impact of intangibles at Microsoft: "Based on figures from June 30, 2023, the end of the company’s fiscal year, the trailing P/E went from 34.9 as reported to 30.5 as adjusted, and EV/EBITDA went from 24.2 to 16.9. These are material differences".
Let the winners run….
Many years ago, my aunt asked me to manage a modest Schwab account for her. I spend roughly zero time on it and rarely make a trade. Makes me wonder wtf I'm doing all day.
@TSOH_Investing @ChrisPavese Wow, yeah that graph really illustrates that rate of change in the capex
Here's a $META visual of the point @JohnHuber72 makes below compliments of @TSOH_Investing
More notes on big tech earnings quality, GAAP and FCF. Asset growth at these companies has been so extreme & so recent (PP&E up 3x in 5 yrs) that I'm not sure it's fully appreciated. Great businesses, but $200b of annual capex is likely a headwind to ROICs:
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Many years ago, my aunt asked me to manage a modest Schwab account for her. I spend roughly zero time on it and rarely make a trade. Makes me wonder wtf I'm doing all day.
$META Capex vs. Pat Dorseys largest position. "They say they are going to spend $14 billion on Capex, double last years Capex. We can’t figure out what they are going to spend it on and we think its basically political cover.” - Pat Dorsey
Pat Dorsey bought $FB based on the moat source of "network effects". This proved to be incorrect. Now, an entirely new company, $META, is building a real moat with 100s of billions in capex. Unless your thesis was "Zuck", you've experienced thesis drift. Thesis drift isn't bad.
h/t @TSOH_Investing for putting together the above chart. Thank you.
More notes on big tech earnings quality, GAAP and FCF. Asset growth at these companies has been so extreme & so recent (PP&E up 3x in 5 yrs) that I'm not sure it's fully appreciated. Great businesses, but $200b of annual capex is likely a headwind to ROICs:
One counterpoint to this idea that intangible investments are causing GAAP earnings to be understated at companies like $MSFT... Their capex is far greater than their D&A currently (e.g. MSFT D&A is ~15b but they will spend 50b+ on capex this year). So perhaps the R&D spend…
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