TechStockFundamentals @TechFundes

$CRM reported an inline qtr. Story is moving sideways – base business chugging along with higher profitability but AI product cycle not yet in gear. Numbers also moving sideways. Street doesn’t have INFA in FCF yet so room for estimates here to move higher. Risk / reward…

$GOOGL sigh of relief on ruling. Bumping target multiples up to 18x GAAP EPS for downside and 25x for upside. Maybe could go higher than 25x for mid teens operating income growth mitigated by the focus returning to secular concerns about AI search. Maybe the nearer-term impact…

$SNOW reported a strong beat / raise. Story continues to get better (core accelerating and AI platform coming together) while numbers move higher. Stock reflects all this and pretty full up here. Upside of -9% on 11x CY2027 revs / 40x FCF (ex-SBC). My numbers largely assume Q2…

British construction firm was mixed on $PCOR. Highlights -Switching is really tough bc get used to using one vendor and have layered projects into the horizon so would have to also have period where using two different solutions -PCOR was great bc was more open w/ APIs to make…

$NVDA putting up some big numbers excluding China - which might turn on again. Growth removing China: Q1 was 39.4b (removed 4b Chinese H20 revs) Q2 was 45.5b (estimating China was 3% of data center revs or 1.2b) so growth of 15% qq (ahead of 14% guidance) and a step-up of 6b.…

The short interest trend in $MDB... Thx for playing.

$MDB reported a strong qtr and guidance. Story getting better (database platform stabilizing / re-accelerating, move up-market going well, AI functionality seeing some adoption) and numbers moving meaningfully higher. Risk / reward was excellent before and not as interesting…

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Scrubbed $WDAY numbers. Near-term? No clue. SaaS is toxic, analyst day maybe resets long-term growth expects a bit lower (although maybe already in stock), and Q3 offers forward year guide and might need to set starting bar lower to have more cushion. So no interesting…

$WDAY reported a good quarter. Story and numbers moving sideways. Company is doing just fine selling HCM / Financial suite software to core customers in large enterprise / government / education – net new ACV is growing which is pretty dissimilar from most of the rest of…

$GOOGL just released a banger of an AI product: Flight Deals Beta. Describe the trip you want and it shows you matching flights. Works pretty well. 2 prompts: 1) I want to go skiing at a big mountain with a cool ski town with fun restaurants / bars. Non-stop flight last full…

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Testing Perplexity Comet browser... Most of it doesn't work well (can't just put in "HUBS Investor Relations" in task bar and have it go there, Amazon.com seems to be blocking log-ins, etc.). But I did find it useful to pull up a podcast, open the transcript…

Put together a model for $MNTN. Estimates for top-line seem far too low, while estimates for EBITDA / FCF seem about right for 2026 - maybe need to guide below to build cushion. Then again, I'm also assuming incremental investment will tick up (incremental margins of 34% in…

This talented hedge fund manager vibe-coded a custom CRM and dropped $HUBS. He also is having a fantastic year - not surprised. Pretty interesting data point for the smaller end of the market. Quote from letter: "Amber Road now operates a new CRM system built on Replit, the…

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$HUBS on the pullback? 1) Glassdoor reviews basically say there are too many sales reps and hitting quota is pretty tough. So not positive for revenue growth but indicates potential for margin if the sales congestion gets cleaned up. 2) ~60% of the business is marketing hub…

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Contact handles sales enablement at French sw company. Positives: $CRM is entrenched and AgentForce working pretty well. Illustrative use case is customer context when responding – very valuable in a high turnover sales model where customer coverage is changing frequently.…

Joint webinar on agents by Anthropic / $ASAN was interesting. Anthropic had a good slide on where they think Agents make sense today (and where software is more efficient) -> Agents good for complex tasks that are expensive where all parts of the task are doable and where the…

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Will be interesting if ironically AI accelerates software adoption at some point. One thought - it must be overwhelming for companies to think about how AI impacts / changes all aspects of their business: -How do I show up in AI overviews and LLM answers to preserve traffic /…

Contact works in IT at PBS Systems, a sw development company. Positive on $MDB as 1) leading NoSQL db in a world that is moving to NoSQL, 2) vector capabilities are very easy to use and increase spend by 25-30%, 3) hyperscaler db competition means vendor lock-in which this…

$MNTN reported a solid Q2. Story is probably best categorized as good / underfollowed. First quarter so no “trend” yet. Numbers are moving up. Risk / reward remains interesting as well though wider range given small-cap, ad-tech, competitive situation. Quarter Total rev of…

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3P contact worked at $CRM for 12 years and now is a consulting partner. Pretty positive. Thinks “AgentForce is the Azure moment for Salesforce”. Will be interesting to see how this plays out - might seem obvious in hindsight. Highlights -Focused on SMB and mid-market –…