TechStockFundamentals @TechFundies
Tech investor for ~25 years. Ran large hedge fund for 10 of those. Here to help. Not investment advice. NYC Joined July 2018-
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$CRM reported an inline qtr. Story is moving sideways – base business chugging along with higher profitability but AI product cycle not yet in gear. Numbers also moving sideways. Street doesn’t have INFA in FCF yet so room for estimates here to move higher. Risk / reward…
$GOOGL sigh of relief on ruling. Bumping target multiples up to 18x GAAP EPS for downside and 25x for upside. Maybe could go higher than 25x for mid teens operating income growth mitigated by the focus returning to secular concerns about AI search. Maybe the nearer-term impact…
British construction firm was mixed on $PCOR. Highlights -Switching is really tough bc get used to using one vendor and have layered projects into the horizon so would have to also have period where using two different solutions -PCOR was great bc was more open w/ APIs to make…
$SNOW reported a strong beat / raise. Story continues to get better (core accelerating and AI platform coming together) while numbers move higher. Stock reflects all this and pretty full up here. Upside of -9% on 11x CY2027 revs / 40x FCF (ex-SBC). My numbers largely assume Q2…
$NVDA putting up some big numbers excluding China - which might turn on again. Growth removing China: Q1 was 39.4b (removed 4b Chinese H20 revs) Q2 was 45.5b (estimating China was 3% of data center revs or 1.2b) so growth of 15% qq (ahead of 14% guidance) and a step-up of 6b.…
The short interest trend in $MDB... Thx for playing.
$MDB reported a strong qtr and guidance. Story getting better (database platform stabilizing / re-accelerating, move up-market going well, AI functionality seeing some adoption) and numbers moving meaningfully higher. Risk / reward was excellent before and not as interesting…
Scrubbed $WDAY numbers. Near-term? No clue. SaaS is toxic, analyst day maybe resets long-term growth expects a bit lower (although maybe already in stock), and Q3 offers forward year guide and might need to set starting bar lower to have more cushion. So no interesting…
$WDAY reported a good quarter. Story and numbers moving sideways. Company is doing just fine selling HCM / Financial suite software to core customers in large enterprise / government / education – net new ACV is growing which is pretty dissimilar from most of the rest of…
$GOOGL just released a banger of an AI product: Flight Deals Beta. Describe the trip you want and it shows you matching flights. Works pretty well. 2 prompts: 1) I want to go skiing at a big mountain with a cool ski town with fun restaurants / bars. Non-stop flight last full…
Testing Perplexity Comet browser... Most of it doesn't work well (can't just put in "HUBS Investor Relations" in task bar and have it go there, Amazon.com seems to be blocking log-ins, etc.). But I did find it useful to pull up a podcast, open the transcript…
Put together a model for $MNTN. Estimates for top-line seem far too low, while estimates for EBITDA / FCF seem about right for 2026 - maybe need to guide below to build cushion. Then again, I'm also assuming incremental investment will tick up (incremental margins of 34% in…
$MNTN COO sounded coherent and good at sell-side conference. Seems like company has a product advantage in serving SMBs for CTV advertising, and a distribution advantage for this harder-to-reach segment of the market. Notes Product highlights -Targeting based on consumer…
This talented hedge fund manager vibe-coded a custom CRM and dropped $HUBS. He also is having a fantastic year - not surprised. Pretty interesting data point for the smaller end of the market. Quote from letter: "Amber Road now operates a new CRM system built on Replit, the…
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