Value Theory @ValueInvestorAc
Buying wonderful businesses. Investing. Books. Free toolkit we use for finding wonderful stocks at Value Investor Academy: https://t.co/f2Hsnnhck6 valueinvestoracademy.com *Not investment advice Joined May 2020-
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95K Followers 761 Following Escaped the Vampire Squid, surviving in the wasteland. Investing in bottlecaps, US UK EU & global assets. Also, jokes. Liking is not endorsing. Do your own DD.25/ I write about world class investors & wonderful companies. Follow for more: @ValueInvestorAc Enjoyed this? Please help us reach a greater audience, by retweeting the 1st tweet of this thread. Thanks!
He Predicted the 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crash His fund returned 483.34% from 2000 to 2008. He reached mainstream fame with the movie “The Big Short” The incredible story of Michael Burry: 🧵
24/ I built a Warren Buffett Blueprint for Finding High Quality Stocks. It shows you how to build a high quality list of stocks, based on Warren's core rules: Get it FREE here: download.valueinvestoracademy.com/buffett
23/ Today Burry runs Scion Asset Management. He continues to make predictions about the U.S. economy. Burry lives in Saratoga, California, with his second wife.
22/ Burry is an investor who has always seen the world differently. Figuratively & literally, as he lost his left eye in his childhood. His contrarian perspective allowed him the freedom to think outside the box. And spot good investments that others may have overlooked.
21/ “It wasn’t a change. I wasn’t diagnosed with something new. It’s something I’d always had.” – Burry on his Asperger’s diagnosis
20/ Burry’s obsession with hard facts, his ability to plow through tedious financial statements, & insistence on logic can all be explained by his Asperger’s. And despite making this discovery – at the age of 35, no less – Burry made no changes to his investment decisions.
19/ Burry’s self-diagnosis of Asperger’s Syndrome – a condition his own son has – didn’t hinder his remarkable investing moves. In fact, it may have even helped him.
18/ Much of Burry’s success from his “Big Short” can be credited to his focus on lenders rather than borrowers. “The borrowers will always be willing to take a great deal for themselves. It’s up to the lenders to show restraint, and when they lose it, watch out.” – Burry
17/ Yet, despite earning them millions, Burry’s move soured some relationships with investors. All the criticism eventually led to Scion’s shutdown in 2008. Burry later launched Scion Asset Management in 2013, which focuses on investments in gold, water, & agricultural land.
16/ Burry’s incredible foresight had paid off spectacularly. Scion recorded returns of 483.34% from 2000 to 2008. And in the same period, the S&P 500 had returned just under 3%.
15/ Burry stood his ground. He refused his investors’ requests. Enter 2007: Burry’s analysis begins to play out. The market collapsed, & his audacious move earned him a stunning $100 million. His investors, meanwhile, bagged a remarkable $725 million.
14/ Some investors in Burry’s fund were worried that his predictions were inaccurate. They demanded to withdraw their capital. By then, however, it was already too late. Burry’s positions were illiquid. If he got out of the trades early, he would suffer a huge loss.
13/ Burry ran to the banks to create a CDS. But only 2 came back to him. Goldman Sachs & Deutsche Bank. Burry’s bold moves were not without their risks though.
12/ A CDS is a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. However, there was no such thing as a CDS on a subprime mortgage bond at the time.
11/ He pulled this off by persuading Goldman Sachs & other investment firms to sell him credit default swaps against subprime deals he saw as vulnerable. But first: what’s a credit default swap (CDS)?
10/ It’s worth noting that short positions are risky for investors though. They have a finite potential for profit. And an infinite potential for loss. But Burry went through with his short anyway.
9/ So what did Burry do? He shorted the market. A “short” is the result of a trader borrowing a security from a brokerage & selling it on the open market in hopes the price will fall. Then the investor can repurchase it at a lower cost.
8/ Burry’s research on the values of residential real estate convinced him that subprime mortgages, especially those with “teaser” rates – & the bonds based on these mortgages – would begin losing value. Particularly once the original rates were replaced by much higher rates.
7/ He studied hundreds of proposals on mortgage-backed securities… and that was when he noticed something. The real estate market was providing too many high-risk loans. In other words, the market was unstable.
6/ Back to “The Big Short” – the film chronicled Burry’s successful 2008 stock market crash prediction. Burry began to analyze the subprime financing market & bank balance sheets, examining the mortgage lending practices in 2003 & 2004.