BiotechMD @_BiotechMD
Oncologist/Healthcarist/Mathematician NYC Joined February 2017-
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$IOVA So now that Keytruda/CPIs are being used as an adjuvant for earlier stage patients (remember most melanoma patients are diagnosed and treated BEFORE they become metastatic), the NCCN pivot to allowing Amtagvi use right away once such earlier patients progress to metastatic…
$IOVA Nothing is guaranteed and smart investors have to try to see the bear side (1) demand and supply not there and (2) need for dilution) - this is not Dendreon - there are no options in 2L+ melanoma and with TIL IP protection for years to come -> sure, they botched the launch…
$IOVA 2025 Catalysts (bottom line, finalize position, take a vacation like me/R-E-L-A-X/NFA): Ten funds control ~50% of the IOVA shares and are in and not going to budge, so only small funds (less so the ~10% retail) moving in and out (only around earnings/catalysts) will move…
$IOVA Re: the recent high volume takedown (not sure macro explains the high volume but helps the descent), I estimate that over the prior 3 high volume days (not including yesterday), 22m "extra" shares traded vs normal. All the shorts do not need to cover but perhaps some did,…
$IOVA just a theory right now but Fri-Mon high volume selloff could have been ATM tap as heard big investors had "asked" management in Q4 to get in via ATM so why not tap the ATM right before JPM visibility when management started meeting analysts/investors/BD BPs [again, not…
$IOVA $AZN speculation only -> CEO Pascal Soriot bought Acerta for 7B -> ~10B in Calquence sales to date and probably another 25B til patent expiration in 2032-2034 = 35B in total -> that's got to earn some #loyalty between Soriot and WR -> and loyalty goes both ways so IF IOVA…
$IOVA So Kansas ATC surgeon said in mid September that IOVA finally listened and provided slot availability/flexibility for ATC surgeons. This implies that despite underachieving on launch by not being ready/appropriately staffed, hence why early launch numbers not that great,…
$IOVA The way IOVA was taken down after decent Q3 earnings in Nov from 12.50 to 7s for what looks like the best cellular therapy launch thus far really seems to indicate that something "unnatural" is behind all of this -- but the real question is why has the stock price not been…
$IOVA Stifel 2025 #1 Biotech Pick = IOVA; recent acquisitions at time of planned data release (or with data release) include ALPN -> IOVA NSCLC registrational interim data cut ASCO 30May-3Jun? vs WCLC 6-8Sep? TBD or ~5 months from key data release = IMGN, RXDX $XBI
$IOVA 2025 Catalysts (to be revised s/p 13Jan new corp deck at JPM): THE BIG ONES: 1) Meeting 2025 Revenue Guidance (+$6) 2) EU Opinion->Approval = 2x US 2L Melanoma market (+$2, ~priced in?) 3) NSCLC Data 25%ORR? = 2x-3x US+ROW 1L+2L Melanoma market (+$6) 4) Final Financing…
$IOVA Odds just increased that it will be Merck as the buyer with stopping their NSCLC trials (of course not to mention the Keytruda melanoma combo as well as their melanoma vaccine interest with further potential synergy with Amtagvi with NIH IP transfer) and now as they are…
$IOVA BMS new cell therapy manufacturing site in EU bms.com/media/media-li… less than 30 minutes drive from IOVA's international headquarters

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Adam Feuerstein ✡�... @adamfeuerstein
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Jacob Plieth @JacobPlieth
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Bertrand Delsuc @BertrandBio
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