Aali @aalirahman
Financial Markets expert | Portfolio Manager at Nine Zero Macro | Former Head of FX Trading, Director Rates & Credit Trading at Standard Chartered Bank Ontario, CA Joined July 2012-
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Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy… #FOMC
A big part of the downward shift in US inflation came from "acyclical" factors related to supply chain issues, etc. That disinflationary impulse has now stabilized at long-term averages whereas more cyclical measures are running about 1% higher than pre-covid rates.
The next best trade would be to fade the fed rate hike narrative. It is very unlikely that FED hikes in 2024. #FOMC #inflation
In the 80s political action helped influence trade unions to agree to abandon their push for inflation indexation. Central Bank monetary policy can be supported by a wider political consensus to control inflation. #inflation #yellen #economy
$NVDA can test 840 before we see a test of 100 DMA @ 682
US 1Y1Y inflation fwd has hovered between 213bps vs 257bps (currently @ 250bps) and the US2Y has strictly followed the path. If FOMC pushes forward the rate cut expectations we can see the 2Y test it's previous highs, while the US10Y can range between 4.75%-4.90% #inflation #cpi
worst performing ccy was BRL and KRW whereas EURUSD could continue to take a beating if ECB does not dial back the optionality of cutting just like the FED. #ECB #FOMC #fx #currencies
At the peak of hawkish season HY credit spreads were at 510bps and IG spreads were at 89bps. 1-month price action does not anticipate a credit event. Z-score move 0.4-0.8 #FederalReserve #highyield #creditspreads #credit #economy #bankingcrises
1-month market implied rate hike/cut expectations.. US rate hike delta is the highest whereas Norway is the lowest. However, BoJ is still the most hawkish central bank on the planet. Canada looks like a good mean reversion play. #BOJ #FederalReserve #monetaryPolicy #canada
1 month jump in real yields and inflation swaps. #inflation #bonds
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Long side hit and run in dis*cord for 87% on 397C 2 DTE today. In and out, like the wind. 💨 🟢 $SPX $SPY $ES_F
Have a feeling today $SPY will be green. Even if it ends the day up .01%. I’m 80% sure. Good or bad take?
Tsla is Backkkkk! 95k day 🥳🥳🥳
Anyone figure out yet that you can't have lower interest rates and a stronger PKR at the same time if inflation is consistently in the double-digits? Pick one.
@aalirahman This is the major reason that sets us apart from everyone.
You welcome if you swung calls (you are allowed to take profits on SPY calls until 4:30pm EST) LIKE for me REAL-time plays.
Added SPY calls for tomorrow's PCE number for a swing: GOOGL and MSFT flying now 🩷
liquidity remains thins and spread is still wide
$NVDA 844 to 791 today.
Now is NOT the time to chase $NVDA here from 756 to 844. You missed that 90pts, no problem. Wait for a pullback.
Guess it’s time to take position in Treasuries. Few.
❖ TOO EARLY TO TAKE POSITION IN U.S. TREASURYS, SAYS JEFFERIES Strong U.S. data suggest that it's too early take positions in U.S. Treasurys, while German Bunds and U.K. gilts are a better choice, Mohit Kumar, chief economist Europe at Jefferies, says in a note. Economic…
$TSLA CHART UPDATE! Yes, fundamentals are deteriorating. Yes earnings are this Tues after hrs. But if I was just solely to focus on the chart and technicals, this is what I see... You got the obvious MOAT resistance up top. You got the obvious MOAT support down below. We got a…
Recap for this week: Biggest winners: $SPY short call spreads: +$850 $NFLX short call spreads: +$912 Biggest losers: $TSLQ pure puts: -$600 $UVXY short call spreads: -$740 $LABD short call spreads: -$400 Account Value = $116,300ish. Week over week remains unchanged. This…
$NVDA can take down the entire fucking stock market.
Not so hot take: $NVDA below $800 before earnings is WAY better than Nvidia at $950 before earnings.
Honestly when you look at the carnage at chips today, $TSLA and $MSTR don’t look that bad 🤣🤣
Rates will not be raised anymore. Rates will be cut. Book mark me now. It’s not 1970. 1970 Debt to GDP was 30%. It’s 130% now. A rate hike will crash the system down. People will be homeless. Wives (if slim) will leave men in droves. It will be the end.
@SteveMiran @aalirahman x.com/barchart/statu…
Hedge Funds have built the largest long position in the Mexican Peso in 13 months
Bitcoin is down nearly 4% today while gold and silver are up nicely today. That's further confirmation that Bitcoin is a risk asset (like high-flying, speculative tech stocks) rather than a crisis hedge, which is why it doesn't interest me. $BTC $GLD
@aalirahman You are right about the Yellen / Fed issue. The consensus is the reflation trade, which I'm on the other side. There are signs in housing, CC debt, tech layoffs, that problems are coming. Things move very fast once they turn risk-off. Everyone thinks they can wait...
No one should be surprised Drew and other execs are leaving as part of TSLA’s 10% layoff announcement. Someone has to take the fall for the sharp deceleration in delivs growth, near record inventories, and declining margins and it wasn’t going to be Elon. Looking ahead to 1Q…
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