Adam Turnquist, CMT @adam__turnquist

The latest record-high rally has been built on the back of a few mega-cap names, creating short-term breadth and momentum divergences. Expectations are rising for other stocks to follow suit — similar to other breakouts we have witnessed during this Field of Dreams bull market.

Copper looks interesting as it retests support today. While supply in China is elevated, demand is building amid rapidly increasing investments in the power grid, EVs, renewables, and AI. More ⬇️ on why the latest pullback could be a buying opportunity. lpl.com/research/blog/…

Inflection points in oil have often preceded inflection points in yields. With oil already breaking down, will 10Y yields follow and take out the 200-dma/October 2022 highs?

Former President Trump’s conviction yesterday adds another degree of political uncertainty for investors, but his election odds remain unfazed. And while correlation does not imply causation, the relationship between the S&P 500 and his probability of winning the election has…

Despite a slowdown into month end, May has been unseasonably strong. Seasonal trends point to June starting the summer doldrums, but returns skew positive between June and year-end, especially for years that include a positive May. More info⬇️ lpl.com/research/blog/…

I spoke with @CNBC about investor angst over rates reaching uncomfortable levels. Cooler inflation data on Friday could be the cure. S&P 500 posts first losing day in 3 as Nvidia's climb fails to lift market, Dow drops 400 points: Live updates cnb.cx/4aEE44E

One key tenet of Dow Theory is that the averages must confirm each other. Given the lack of confirmation from the TRAN index, and diverging paths between the two indexes, the recent breakout to new highs on the INDU remains suspect and subject to some potential downside risk.

The “boring” bond proxy profile of the utilities sector has become a little more exciting as AI-fueled data center demand surges across the country. The technical setup has also become a little more exciting as the sector rallies to YTD highs. More 🔽 lpl.com/research/blog/…

A few May seasonal stats… ➡️Since 1950, average SPX return: 0.2%, higher 61% ➡️Last 10-years, average SPX return: 0.7%, higher 90% ➡️May kicks off the worst six-month stretch for the SPX, giving some credence to the popular “Sell in May & Go Away” adage. ➡️However, average…

Sentiment has changed direction this month, and the AAII Bull-Bear spread index turned negative for the first time since early November. We discuss the drivers behind the change in investor optimism and what it could mean for stocks ahead. 🔽 lpl.com/research/blog/…

Market narratives are always changing, and in this week's #WeeklyMarketCommentary, we highlight the transition to the higher-for-longer monetary policy narrative and what it means for markets (spoiler alert...it does not mean the bull market is dead). lpl.com/research/weekl…

Can the S&P 500 snap its six-day losing streak? Based on history, the odds of a six-day losing streak turning into seven are about 40%. Forward returns after the S&P 500 registered a six-day losing streak are also highlighted below. 🔽

Add taxes to the list of reasons stocks are down this month. Years with high individual income tax collections to GDP ratios have notably lagged lower ratio years in the first half of April. Fortunately, returns for these periods tend to improve in the back half of the month.

Breakeven inflation rates suggest the market has become less confident in inflation coming down to the Fed's 2% target over the next two years vs. 10 years.

The S&P 500’s breakdown below the 20-dma and simultaneous breakout in 10Y yields above 4.35% should be considered a warning sign for a deeper pullback...but not the end of the bull market. Read why we view 4,800 as a worst-case scenario for stocks 🔽 lpl.com/research/blog/…

March headline and core inflation top estimates, sending 10Y yields above resistance at 4.35%-4.40% and equity futures lower. Here is how stocks have reacted to CPI since the Fed started raising rates. Energy has been the only sector higher on days when inflation comes in hot.

Great blog today from @jbuchbinder_LPL highlighting seven reasons why we continue to like the energy sector. ⬇️ lpl.com/research/blog/…

10-year yields are back at key resistance. A breakout above the 4.35%-4.40% range would not only be technically significant, but it could also mark a tipping point for risk appetite, as was the case last summer. Tomorrow's employment report could be the make-or-break moment.

Market breadth is an important indicator to assess the overall health of the market. Current breadth readings point to a healthy/cyclically driven bull market. Historical comparisons to today's breadth levels also suggest pullbacks should be bought.🔽 lpl.com/research/blog/…

The S&P 500 is set to post its fifth straight monthly advance. Can the spring melt-up continue into April? We address this question and highlight a few other seasonal market trends in today's blog 🔽 lpl.com/research/blog/…