Lots of discussions about the threat of nuclear war from the Kremlin and whether Putin is rational. I share my thoughts in this thread. To frame: I do not believe Russia would use nuclear weapons and I believe Putin is a rational actor.
First of all, I want to examine where the questioning of Putin’s rationality started. I think it began because most people, particularly in the West, view his decision to invade Ukraine as utterly irrational. I disagree. It’s horrific, but not irrational.
@andreivkozyrev We didn’t botch Afghanistan , trump was working for Putin, released the taliban leaders, made deals to boycott our pullout…
@andreivkozyrev Fiona Hill warns Putin would use nuclear weapons: "If he has an instrument, he wants to use it. Every time you think, No, he wouldn’t, would he? Well, yes, he would, Hill said. It’s not that we should be intimidated & scared, she added. We have to prepare for those contingencies"
@andreivkozyrev I'm skeptical of the concept of identifying people as "rational actors". People are rational up to a point, as long as their information is accurate and their perceived options are relatively familiar. *Everyone* has the potential for irrationality, given the right conditions.
@andreivkozyrev The question is, has Putin understood that we are in a new world now since 24 feb? The shift of the wests perception of the world is in new phase. The shift is greater than 1989-91 or 1945. There will be no Russian walking back a bit or concession that will make us go back. 1/
@andreivkozyrev Questions about Putin's madness and barbarity did not begin yesterday with the invasion of Ukraine but long before with the massacres in Syria and before in Chechnya and then Georgia, Crimea and Donbass and before with the persecution of his own citizens.
@andreivkozyrev @WholeMarsBlog if u understand "use it or lose it" you know nuclear war isn't on the table. it just isn't.
@andreivkozyrev I read your thread but honestly, you lost me when you said Putin is not irrational and that he would not use nuclear weapons: I think you're wrong on both counts and to rationalize his behaviour is a grave mistake.
@andreivkozyrev @RALee85 If the west cowers to every threat from Putin, to use nuclear or bio weapons, cyber attacks, expanding war into NATO countrys, democracies have already lost. We cannot permit Putin’s threats to mitigate our need for urgent action. 1/
@andreivkozyrev A rational actor can turn irrational when pressed into a corner
@andreivkozyrev Shorty has nothing to lose. When he becomes desperate, I'm hiding under my elementary school desk, because if it's 1 thing I learned other than cursive & fractions, it's how to survive nuclear annihilation. You need a desk. I've been prepping for bombs since the early 60s. Tired.
@andreivkozyrev You're thread explaining that Putin is rational is in itself irrational. What rational person actually believes that Ukraine is governed by Nazis? What rational thought process is taking place by threatening the use of nuclear weapons? Its insane.
@andreivkozyrev "Putin's veiled nuclear threats are "not a sign of strength," former Russian foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev tells @HelenMannCBC. "It's a sign of weakness." bit.ly/3Cf6EKw
@andreivkozyrev What part of making up facts and creating Potemkin realities is rational? What about concocting threat scenarios that don’t exist even in the face of past Russian military interventions and war efforts (Kaukasus, Crimea) is rational?
@andreivkozyrev But Putin did use nukes; polonium-210; See attached article dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2…
@andreivkozyrev "Rational actor" - you sure about that?
@andreivkozyrev I think he's calculating and knows exactly what he's doing. He's bluffing and knows the world is afraid of him, that's why the Ukrainian people's bravery is so admired. HES BLUFFING, not irrational
@andreivkozyrev @NATOSource Can we have a back and fourth about Putins Use of USSR Reflexive Control Theory , Propaganda, Social Media, And The Invasion ? I want to run some things by you and need an expert. I've built a hypothesis. Pic is a Combat Specialists thoughts about participating in the wat.
@andreivkozyrev While I would agree with the facts you present, and the conclusion that Putin is “acting rationally” within the context of those facts - lots of that is based on the assumption that Putin is believing his own propaganda, and if that is true how rational is he really?
@andreivkozyrev Maybe it’s rational for an authoritarian actor but not for the leader of a democracy. True power is derived from a mandate of the people, not oppressing them.
@andreivkozyrev Yes. And, to make nuclear options even less likely, we can negotiate with Putin's most 'rational' generals and Russian government officials (through back channels separated from Putin). At the same time, disclose as much of the 'truth' of this war to Russian citizens.