Daniel Allen @daniel_llen
🇮🇹🇩🇪🇺🇸 Opinions my own. Former @Livermore_Lab CGSR. @JamesMartinCNS. @UChicago. OSINT, arms control, WMDs, nonproliferation. Bylines @Diplomat_APAC Joined June 2023-
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New MDI blog post: Ukraine’s Flamingos take to the skies iiss.org/online-analysi…
A new @ACWPodcast where @aaronstein1 and I discuss @alexbward's reporting on the Pentagon process restricting Ukraine's ability to strike targets in Russia. youtube.com/watch?v=IijsVP…
Middlebury Institute of International Studies will be closing down most of its programs by June 2027.
The Countdown to Prevent Another Iranian Nuclear Crisis Just Began My thoughts on snapback for @CarnegieEndow carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2025/…
E3 letter to the President of the UNSC, triggering snapback
I just got around to looking at that video and all I can say is STOP THAT. The North Koreans are much more careful and even then we almost always find the factory in a day.
I just got around to looking at that video and all I can say is STOP THAT. The North Koreans are much more careful and even then we almost always find the factory in a day.
I wrote about Iran's missile failure rates during True Promise II Folks get caught up in the 50% failure rate figure from TP I and assume similar numbers are true for TP II and the 12 Day War. But, official statements and video evidence suggest its the failure rate is only 10%!
My colleague @shendre3000 and I wrote about Houthi SAMs. Turns out the Houthis are making jank thermal batteries to maintain their older SA-7b MANPADS, but the process behind it is wild! Seth wrote about the Houthis converting Russian AAMs to SAMs. Links below:
Ukraine’s giant Flamingo cruise missile appears to use an Ivchenko AI-25TL turbofan engine repurposed from an Aero L-39 jet trainer.
I’m curious what the community’s opinions on this strike are. It seems odd to me that Russia would be shipping Shahed equipment from Iran since they have their own production facility at Yelabuga.
I’m curious what the community’s opinions on this strike are. It seems odd to me that Russia would be shipping Shahed equipment from Iran since they have their own production facility at Yelabuga.
horsdoeuvresofbattle.blog/2025/07/22/the… I may have written 12K words on the war, Iran's missile performance, and where we go from here. I hope it is illuminating.
Exceptionally fake. Hard to know where to even begin. - Planet satellite imagery of the site shows nothing. - Tall storage tanks in the back nowhere to be seen. - No explanation offered for how the missile would maintain a data link in the terminal phase. - Shadows look…
If there is one thing you should read today, it's @sam_lair's excellent piece for @ArmsControlWonk on Israeli interceptor usage during the Israel-Iran war.
Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. 🧵 1/17
Something else to keep in mind as we make our forecasts is that there is some fissile material that might be unaccounted for. Halting production of new material might not stop Iran from using what they already have.
Something else to keep in mind as we make our forecasts is that there is some fissile material that might be unaccounted for. Halting production of new material might not stop Iran from using what they already have.
Wondering if this will bear any resemblance to the IDF commando unit attacks we had seen.
Wondering if this will bear any resemblance to the IDF commando unit attacks we had seen.
Could be the submunitions of a Ghadr missile
Could be the submunitions of a Ghadr missile https://t.co/ZLbro26Zbd
So NYT reporting on commando raids was correct
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Remotely Piloted Twee... @LostLinkTweets
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' @bds110R
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342 Followers 3K Following اهل پست نیستم، بیشتر ریپلای مینویسم https://t.co/9GVVoe93RY
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A @boz_baldar
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exceptional @pending_to
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KD @kushyar
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Jon Gambrell | جون @jongambrellAP
54K Followers 5K Following Gulf and Iran news director for The Associated Press (@AP) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, by way of Egypt, Nigeria, Arkansas and elsewhere. [email protected]
Rich Tedd 🛰 ✈️ @AfriMEOSINT
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Holly Dagres @hdagres
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WINS @WINS_org
2K Followers 364 Following Our mission: To be the leader in knowledge exchange, professional development and certification for nuclear security management.
Rhea Kanuparthi @KanuparthiRhea
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The University of Chi... @UChicago
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Joby Warrick @JobyWarrick
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Yeganeh Torbati @yjtorbati
19K Followers 3K Following @WashingtonPost reporter, co-writing book on Iran for @doubledaybooks @VikingBooksUK. فارسی بلدم.
Yixiong Hao @Yixiong_Hao
398 Followers 1K Following cs @GeorgiaTech | strong preference for aligned AI | co-director @ https://t.co/pJCxjv7GWv | prev @startupxchange
Open Source Centre @osc_london
13K Followers 242 Following OSC works at the cutting edge of open source intelligence and analytics to derive insights on important questions related to national security and defence.
Shay Khatiri @ShayKhatiri
5K Followers 2K Following Frank Costanza foreign policy: They don’t want us there, so, we’re going. I will correct your grammar. “90 minuti en el Bernabéu son molto longos.” 92:48
Mohammad Shaltouki | ... @mohshaltouki
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Global Defense Insigh... @Defense_Talks
41K Followers 4K Following Global Defense Insight is a premier print and digital publication covering defense, security, and strategic affairs.
Matt Lee @APDiploWriter
101K Followers 443 Following AP Diplomatic Writer. Dad. Curmudgeon. Any snark is all mine. Ex-Buffalo, -Musselburgh, -CVille, -Phnom Penh, -Nairobi. Go Bills! Go Sabres! Hoya Saxa!
Seyed Abbas Araghchi @araghchi
282K Followers 16 Following Foreign Minister, Islamic Republic of Iran • Telegram: https://t.co/SvqW58m8er • Instagram: @araghchi
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Masashi MURANO🚀 @show_murano
51K Followers 1K Following Senior Fellow @HudsonInstitute | JPN-US defense strategy & policy | nuclear/conventional deterrence | missile defense | TTX/wargame scenario & force development
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591 Followers 506 Following 🇪🇺 🇫🇷 Visiting fellow @AtlanticCouncil in 🇺🇲 | Tweets on Europe, Indopac & all things nuclear | formerly @Armees_Gouv | usual caveats
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129 Followers 253 Following Undergrad @FandMCollege, @StimsonCenter Foreign Policy Futures Fellow. @JamesMartinCNS undergrad fellow. @jqasociety Man At Large. Nukes & Other Things.
CISAC & on Bluesky @s... @StanfordCISAC
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The Intel Lab @TheIntelLab
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آرین طباطبا... @ZXauczIDTysdnsx
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Inst for Science @TheGoodISIS
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Press TV 🔻 @PressTV
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