My new Substack post (next tweet) on effects of Israeli & US preventive strike on Iran on Iranian nuclear program now up. I argue that it did cause a significant 3-5 year delay in the Iranian nuclear program but effect of bombing of nuke sites is just one secondary component/1

Rather the delay is because that this attack forces Iran, before making any post war run for a nuke, to first do extensive preparations for such a future strike. Those preparations, such as hunting Mossad spies in Iran, /2 open.substack.com/pub/dovhlevin/…

rebuilding Iran’s anti-aircraft and ballistic missile capabilities, damaged by the strike, to creating a plausible nuke delivery system, are all time consuming & expensive- and cause significant delays to any such nuclear breakout. The attack also increases chances of a time /3