Rage Against Commodities @energyfundys
All things commodities from fundys to flows . Self proclaimed Weather Expert 20+year survivor Joined February 2021-
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When the perma prod decline crew keeps chirping just show them this #natgas #boil #ung #xle #commodities
Near record production over the weekend #natgas #boil #ung #commodities #oott #lng #permian #marcellus #xle #wti
Market still barely short overall. If weather doesn’t show up market will move lower on long liquidation #natgas #ung #boil #energy #commodities
Most of my posts of late have been from the bearish side which based on #futures falling off a cliff was correct . Here is a little nugget for the bulls #natgas #boil #ung #Commodities #xle #powerburn #coal #oott
@nynjpaweather just got this shirt off the @PivotalWeather site!
Salts inject 12 . Thats not very bullish #natgas #boil #ung #commodities #wti #prayforcold
Keep posting until they stop #natgas #boil #ung #wti #producers #commodities #xle
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@energyfundys @LINVERSI @ArcisFX The regulators are in bed with HFTs and algos. Everybody is in on it because everybody gets a cut except retail. Retail on aggregate can only win if they stop using leverage...because then they can actually own stuff....but that doesn't allow getting rich quickly. Vicious circle
LOL.. on the way up it was due to fundamental issues, on the way down ..it is due to an illiquid market?
#Cocoa's near 30% slump this week is mostly reflecting a broken and illiquid market, more than an improvement in the very tight supply outlook.
@bad_pseudonym @mmm_btus Who hasn’t sat at the desk and quietly wondered how hard it would be for Ercot to avg that THAT for a month :). Hell, selling the forward curve right after the polar vortex event in 2014 woulda been the trade of a lifetime but no way risk was letting u do it 🤷🏻♂️
@energyfundys Thanks for pointing it out. It was a stock observation, rather than flow. Showing it tighter week-over-week from a wx-adj perspective.
@energyfundys @scool891 Basically that upper blue trendline. 2.06/2.07.
#natgas looking squeezy pre-report, but will either that (or mediocre cash) put a lid on upside? You could tell me M24 would hit 2.15 on a good report today and I'd believe you.
The "renewables bad" crowd love to point to California's high electricity prices, but they never seem to mention Iowa, South Dakota, Kansas, Oklahoma, or New Mexico. That might be because the top 5 states for wind and solar all have electricity cheaper than the national average.…
@energyfundys Ah, that's fine, thanks. We try to use our # and then known consensus numbers. Some of those will be 60, some above, some below.
@citizenjs1 @JessePeltan That is false and you know it. ERCOT rolling brown outs started in the West where the NG pumping stations are instead of the high consumption east where the users are. Then I bet you are giddy when 100 Texas are sacrificed at the alter of climate change.
@energyfundys Just parroting the numbers he talked about…that may be nameplate capacity of which some is “out”
@douglewinenergy Yesterday Doug forgot to mention renewables failed. Wonder why?
"Freeport has had the output of an explosion without an explosion" #TraderTalk #NatGas
There is a lot of buzz about the amount of large loads coming to ERCOT. First off, I think we need to take these numbers with the same HUGE grain of salt that we take the generator interconnection queue, which has like 315 GW of solar, storage, and wind in it!
Holy cow. The Texas grid operator's (ERCOT) new electric load review puts 62 gigawatts of additional electric load by 2030 *on top of the current forecast.* New 2030 load levels used in transmission planning reach 152 GW by 2030! For perspective, the all-time peak in ERCOT is…
@staunovo Is probably to lower margin requirements on shorted positions closer to the money
@FibChartsPro 1st, if it was because of brookfield, don't you think the AGT would be omega bid? but no, basis is flat. 2nd, wouldn't agt/iroquois widen? no, hasn't even moved. 3rd, brookfield only 300mmcf and AGT has little connectivity to henry or even NE, would just make basis disconnect.
@FibChartsPro this shows you guys know nothing about the natgas phys world lol
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