₿allet Dancer @entropycurve
Truth seeker｜Agnostic & Psychologist｜Bio&Game&Crypto journalist｜English:@BubbleNumber Hong Kong Joined January 2022-
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不过lulu这波短线感觉可以抄一波底，从量化角度来看业绩miss的程度远小于实际跌幅，今天有点恐慌盘的味道，后续应该会出提振市场信心的管理层变动or经营方针转变的利好
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越懂赌博越懂不赌 这是《大唐双龙传》里的赌圣鲁妙子的心法 算是把上一代风水学浓缩到极致的表达 很多时候决定我们是什么的不是我们做了什么 而是我们不or没做什么 但世人只会记住美丽的烟花和泡沫
Lulu这个财报只能说明我的long man short women strategy没有任何问题，还好之前的仓位全清了，mentally short
RBLX这支票虽然这波Q2我预期到了会很坚挺开始看多，因为二季度平台CCU的数据突然暴增，加之管理层开始卖自己转变商业模型成广告媒介的story，但或早或晚变现能力差的雷始终都会爆，大概率下波Q3就开始了 目前的这个CEO跟之前暴雪的麦考迪没半毛钱区别
RBLX这支票虽然这波Q2我预期到了会很坚挺开始看多，因为二季度平台CCU的数据突然暴增，加之管理层开始卖自己转变商业模型成广告媒介的story，但或早或晚变现能力差的雷始终都会爆，大概率下波Q3就开始了 目前的这个CEO跟之前暴雪的麦考迪没半毛钱区别
我希望我以后不必再为犯过的大错耿耿于怀，而是享受这套process和整个过程 正如一个游戏存在把把都赢的公式化sop，那这个游戏也将迅速丧失玩家的热情
TI14马上开了，收收心准备看比赛了 最近越来越意识到杠杆这玩意儿就像dota2里的圣剑 输了 你可以怨杠杆 但你更该怨的是决策前的自己 工具永远都只是工具 错的永远是人
币圈交易所的switch cost可能比券商的switch cost更高，因为币圈从未存在“打新”这类对大部分retails来说稳赚不赔的买卖 而且主现货的关注点在交易所会不会像FTX一样卷钱跑路，主衍生品的关注点在于会不会插针和费率 如果是在合规赛道上 反而费率没那么关键 因此交易所赛道更像“快消赛道”而非“券商赛道”
如果有一个人公开场合说自己“爱学习”，那么在主流舆论眼里这人至少存在50%的概率在装、虚伪 但如果有一个人公开场合说自己“爱玩游戏”，那么在主流舆论眼里这人95%的概率是说的实话，诚实 理解社会契约的同时又能抽离这种契约vibe是真不容易 过去的我从未想过我能有假装爱玩游戏的今天
抛弃scalable mindset与抛弃“搞钱”心态真的是有异曲同工之妙 不过我现在还有一点没有抛弃，那就是我的“羊群心理” 入世容易，出世也容易，却没料到“入世而出世”这么难
我用chorme的频率越来越少了，可能chorme唯一的优势就是能用谷歌邮箱便捷登录证明自己不是bot
腾讯的三角洲行动现在太火了，没想到网易的漫威争锋才是这波“感恩节前的火鸡” 三角洲陪玩现在每天都能赚个两三百（平均收入）超越大陆平均薪资水平 押中了网易的Q1，miss掉腾子的Q2真是罪过 不过Q3的playbook现在有个雏形了 从投机pvp零和博弈转成投资pve正和博弈的mindset后我现在明显比以前更快乐了
我以前理解的“远离疯狂”，以为是做与疯狂行为相反的事 现在才知道是从视觉、听觉、触觉上跟“疯狂”隔离 修真界的疯狂会伤害一切不具备edge的参与者 不论多空 更不必说损失的时间、机会成本
原神这前瞻，虽然回溯5年所有溢出命座发邮件真让我这退坑老登有那么一丝心动，但tm送的角色命座全是现阶段没用的垃圾角色，那自选赠送列表基本可以说是官方认证坐牢角色了，然后我简单数了一下2/3的角色我当初都氪了满命，像极了回溯我历史上所有投资失败的股票，恰到好处的扎死了我刚萌发的回坑的心
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