Football Insights 📊 @fball_insights
Quantifying from every perspective | Inquires: [email protected] linktr.ee/fballinsights Joined September 2020-
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Lowest targeted QB rating vs Zone, Round 1-2 WRs since 2019 draft (via PFF) X. Legette: 67.9 J. Reagor: 74.1 J. Mingo: 78.3 K. Coleman: 86.4 W. Robinson: 87.6 V. Jefferson: 88.4 R. Bateman: 90.8 K. Hamler: 94.0 X. Worthy: 94.2 A. Mitchell: 95.5 N. Harry: 95.8 L. Shenault: 96.5
Interesting trends with two vets. Cooper Kupp less targets vs LBs in coverage (dropping YPRR), while DeAndre Hopkins may be benefiting from “relief” via matchups/alignment. Their tracking data open scores follow suit.
Team pressure to sack and turnover-worthy throw rates after removing DBs with motion (regular season). MIA deploys the most motion so their sample isn’t too big without it, but you can still see why that’s the case.
Among WRs drafted since 2017 (250+), Malachi Corley ranks 7th in target rate behind the LOS, per PFF (37%). 6 of the top 10 were third round picks, including Corley. Weird find.
Would Trevor have remained perfect in the egregious hot take era
Notable QB prospects scrambling and sack avoidance on DBs with >2.5 seconds in the pocket (since 2010). Jayden Daniels taking off more than Cam Newton seems sustainable
2025 QBs sack avoidance vs big time throw rates with the last two classes.
If Jalen Milroe never played another college snap, where he’d rank among all drafted QBs since 2016 - Highest pressure to sack (31.3%) - Highest time to throw (3.41) - Highest scramble % (14.8%) - Highest >2.5 sec DB % (70.5%) - 2nd-highest ADOT to Josh Allen (12.5)
Lowest % of receptions caught behind LOS, Round 1 WRs since 2018 draft Ja’Marr Chase: 2.8% Brian Thomas Jr: 7.9% Marvin Harrison Jr: 9% Chris Olave: 10.2% Garrett Wilson: 13.3% Justin Jefferson: 13.9% Rome Odunze: 15.4% Jahan Dotson: 16.9% CeeDee Lamb: 17.3% Malik Nabers: 17.9%
DI class career run stop and pass rush win rates among other drafted interiors since 2016.
Ladd McConkey college totals among WRs drafted since 2017, via PFF Run block grade (90th percentile) Targeted passer rating (91st percentile) Others >90th percentile in both: - Corey Davis - Cooper Kupp - Terry McLaurin
Kimani Vidal college totals among RBs drafted since 2017, via PFF Elusive rushing (76th percentile) Pass snaps/game (86th percentile) Others >75th percentile in both: - Dalvin Cook - David Montgomery - Zack Moss - Bijan Robinson - Jahmyr Gibbs - De’Von Achane
Looking at career pass EPA from the top three drafted QBs by receiver. Jayden Daniels top four casually all first rounders
Drafted TEs with a career 2.0+ YPRR and >25% screen target rate since 2017 - Dallas Goedert - Brock Bowers - Jaheim Bell
Career weighted pass block grades from the RB class, relative to RBs drafted since 2017 (via PFF) Jonathan Brooks: 79th percentile Trey Benson: 71st Keilan Robinson: 66th Kimani Vidal: 62nd Tyrone Tracy: 48th Blake Corum: 41st Dylan Laube: 37th Ray Davis: 32nd Rasheen Ali: 31st
Harbaugh already has OT1 forklift certified
Harbaugh already has OT1 forklift certified
Taking a look at some basic college receiving from previously drafted WRs and this year’s class. I’m prob a small room guy in terms of first round viability but after the big three (rightfully) went early, i’m understanding of a few names/fits that followed like BTJ, Worthy.
Wow both Murphy’s went undrafted. Is Latu just an insane force multiplier?
Wow both Murphy’s went undrafted. Is Latu just an insane force multiplier?
Drafted WRs averaging >0.25 TPRR with a 120+ targeted passer rating in college, via PFF (last two drafts) - Marvin Harrison Jr. - Malik Nabers - Puka Nacua - Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Jordan Addison - Tank Dell - Josh Downs
Roman Wilson in college: - 54% Middle target % - 29% Deep target % Of PIT WRs drafted since 2017, highest deep rate since George Pickens & MOF rate since Diontae Johnson (per PFF) Last season, ATL (Arthur Smith) & PIT were top three in the NFL in deep pass rate over the middle.
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It’s an interesting thought exercise to consider how fall Turner would have fallen had the Vikings not taken him. I think it’s reasonable to assume the distribution of pick position was not symmetric about 17, but a lot of the reasons his consensus board ranking was as high as…
This is fascinating stuff. Good read here about Jayden Daniels and the VR technology he embraced while at LSU. nola.com/sports/lsu/lsu…
Had a few ask about the VR technology used by Jayden Daniels. Yes Washington will have it for him (and all the QBs). They liked it quite a bit and would have ordered regardless of the QB. But … they also knew how much it helped Daniels.
@fball_insights This is kinda what separates him from some of the others drafted in the same range. His per route stat profile was pretty compelling.
Time to talk about a player people don't really talk about. One of the best players in the country is Iowa's Sebastian Castro. A S/NI hybrid, his combination of coverage instincts, technique, and physicality makes him the kind of positionless the modern game demands 1/ 🧵
@fball_insights I spent way too long trying to work out why you were removing defensive backs with motion
2025 Draft Eligible QBs - Yards After Catch per Reception This alone doesn't tell us a lot. Variables here could be WR ability, scheme, QB decision-making, or a combo of all.
@fball_insights Of course not. There were already cracks.
@fball_insights I'd imagine some of it is due to strength of competition
@fball_insights @TravisDHolmes There would’ve been some “Fields is actually better” talks if he didn’t completely lay an egg in the Big Ten Championship Of course, they’d be 100% wrong, but they’d be there
@fball_insights Big board placement not granular; more like buckshot than sniper. Need is a driving factor, exacerbated by draft coming after free agency, and positional scarcity before drop off hits replacement level expectation is often precipitous. Misguided sense of value in draft analysis.
@fball_insights Feel like Trevor nailed every standard QB trait to the point where any hot take would be clearly unreasonable. Caleb is flashy and divisive in a way that's easier to discredit
I listen to a ton of football podcasts. Nate was awesome- and now sadly all 5 of my favorite podcasts duos are no longer together 1a.Mike Renner & Austin Gayle 1b. Robert Mays & Nate Tice 3. Trevor Sikkema & Ben Solak 4. Nate Tice & Dane Brugler 5. Eric Eager & George Chahouri
Today’s pod was my final episode of The Athletic Football Show. I have an exciting opportunity in media that I will be announcing very soon, but first I want to thank everyone who made the last four years so special.
This is a Jermaine Burton tweet.
If Jalen Milroe never played another college snap, where he’d rank among all drafted QBs since 2016 - Highest pressure to sack (31.3%) - Highest time to throw (3.41) - Highest scramble % (14.8%) - Highest >2.5 sec DB % (70.5%) - 2nd-highest ADOT to Josh Allen (12.5)
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