Gemma Tetlow @gemmatetlow
Chief Economist @instituteforgov. ONS Fellow. Any opinions here are mine. Retweets are not endorsement. Subscribe to IfG newsletter: https://t.co/ZQWleT5iUj London, England Joined March 2011-
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Find out why we think the government needs to clarify what aspects of the state it is willing to scale back to meet its current fiscal targets in @gemmatetlow's @instituteforgov piece below. Access CIPFA and @instituteforgov's Performance Tracker here: cipfa.org/policy-and-gui…
Find out why we think the government needs to clarify what aspects of the state it is willing to scale back to meet its current fiscal targets in @gemmatetlow's @instituteforgov piece below. Access CIPFA and @instituteforgov's Performance Tracker here: cipfa.org/policy-and-gui…
I'm looking forward to speaking at this @instituteforgov on next week's big set of local and mayoral elections, alongside @sjcalkin @Emma_Norris and polling guru Sir John Curtice (@whatukthinks) Join us in Westminster (with drinks afterwards) or online instituteforgovernment.org.uk/event/local-ma…
Rishi Sunak’s higher defence spending announcement does not add up The prime minister should not be allowed to abdicate decisions about how to pay for his spending pledges, says @gemmatetlow instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/rishi-…
Brilliant @instituteforgov explainer from @SirJJKC on potential for challenges to the Rwanda bill… instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/explai…
Sorry, what? If the government is relying on civil service efficiencies and cuts to fund this amount of new defence spending then that completely lacks credibility. Not serious
Sorry, what? If the government is relying on civil service efficiencies and cuts to fund this amount of new defence spending then that completely lacks credibility. Not serious
Fantastic news @SarahNev is a v promising young journalist! Such a well deserved honour for one of the nicest and most respected people in journalism 🍾 🥂
Fantastic news @SarahNev is a v promising young journalist! Such a well deserved honour for one of the nicest and most respected people in journalism 🍾 🥂
Nice summary of issues here . Charges for loo roll, none for caviar: strange quirks of the UK’s VAT rules | Tax | The Guardian theguardian.com/money/2024/feb…
The UK govt now spends as much as the average advanced economy. But we still raise less in tax than the average. As a result, we've gone from having below-average to above-average government debt levels. New from my (non-tweeting) @TheIFS colleagues: ifs.org.uk/articles/spend…
If you're an economist who would like to influence government policy, this post is really worth reading.
If you're an economist who would like to influence government policy, this post is really worth reading.
NEW: Access to Sure Start greatly improved disadvantaged children’s GCSE results, by as much as three GCSE grades. THREAD on @nridpathecon, @Sarah_Cattan and @carneiro_econ’s new report, funded by @NuffieldFound, on Sure Start’s impact on educational outcomes: [1/10]
It’s time!!! We are recruiting for our next cohort of 6 research interns to start in September 2024 - it’s going to be a fascinating year to have a ringside view of Westminster - do apply (or forward to anyone who might like to…) instituteforgovernment.org.uk/about-us/caree…
Lots of discussion about levelling up, and Labour's plans for the agenda. Last year we held a series of events on the topic with @UoMPolicy in London, Manchester and at party conferences. This short paper highlights some of the key insights instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/wh…
Sam Freedman @Samfr
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Rishi Sunak's defense spending pledge was big news this week. But in the UK it has descended into a political spat about the government cooking the books. London Playbook has the details 👇 trib.al/8YcssMM
In which @Gus_ODonnell is both right and agrees with me, @JohnRalfe1 and lots of other people. Government, are you listening? Increase public sector pay and cut pensions!
I will continue to argue that we desperately need a switch towards more pay less pension in the public sector. You can’t get a mortgage based on your future pension.
Fantastic first comment from Cassia. If you’re interested in criminal justice (and wider public services) policy you should be following her
Another day, another declaration of 'tougher sentences', this time for assaults on shop workers. But with prisons bursting at the seams, the government lacks a credible plan, as I argue in my piece on the new Sentencing Bill @instituteforgov instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/govern…
Going through some old Budget documents (for work, promise) and it's quite funny being able to pinpoint the moment at which the Treasury discovered WordArt (November 1996), needlessly 3-D bar charts (July 1998), and the ability to add a pointless shadow to pie charts (March 1999)
What a neat idea in this 🧵 A few hard numbers on who knew what when in the endlessly debated WASPI pension age increase
There's been a lot of discussion recently about Waspi women/increases in state pension age and who was adequately informed about what, which prompted me to look back at work we did years ago using @ELSA_Study which asked a representative sample of affected women exactly this...
@gemmatetlow The simplified version was summarised in the 2004 state pension survey
This absolutely meets any sensible definition of being properly informed about your pension age
@Sjg3G @JohnRalfe1 from the judicial review. Woman who said she did not know her SPA was going up submitted docs to the court under disclosure to the contrary - she simply did not take the info in
My first ever IFS publication. Digging it out again, although the reference to marriage rather than household shows its age!
An honour for our launch to be @StefanRousseau photo du jour - this is great
Photo du Jour: Former Prime Minsters John Major & Gordon Brown at the launch of the final report of the Institute for Government's (IfG) year-long Commission on the Centre of Government. By Stefan Rousseau/PA
In 1947, Hugh Dalton "revealed a sentence of the budget to a reporter minutes before delivering his budget speech. Prime Minister Clement Attlee accepted his resignation". In 2024:
Just got this very weird message from @Jeremy_Hunt . Never heard NICs and income tax described as double taxation before - if it said you should not pay two taxes on your income he'd have a point.
Because the non dom tax thing dates back to 1799, I once came out with "The madness of king George III's Tax System" as an editorial title, and that's the best thing about it, by far
NICs cut makes sense especially if we can follow this through to total removal! It does not benefit those who don’t pay NICs, like me, but I think that is fair enough. NICs now clearly counted as a tax!
I agree. The quiet and steady erosion of independent taxation is very depressing
Having fought hard for independent taxation I don’t much like this way of achieving removal of the threshold and it is certainly not a simplification. I see definitional problems but we already have them as result of ( bad) initial policy.
@MikeBrewerEcon @OBR_UK @rjdhughes I am. But don't get advanced EFO. There is an important wider point about expertise here. Practitioners heavily involved in policymaking process, HMRC stakeholder events, etc. Academics aren't brought into the process. See👇w/@gemmatetlow @tompope0 instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/ev…
beginning to glaze over... SIT DOWN pls and give me the excel
@PJTheEconomist should also have tagged @tompope0,@gemmatetlow and @ollybartrum who have a great new report on this instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/st…
very close to calling bingo and the speech hasn't even started
Jeremy Hunt's Budget: * 2p cut in NI - cost £10billion * Extending fuel duty freeze & 5p cut - cost £5bn * New tax on vapes and increase in tobacco duty - raises £500m * Scaling back non-dom tax regime - raises £2bn * Extending windfall tax on profits of oil and gas companies *…
Brilliant thread: (1) Current fiscal rules are poorly designed & being gamed (2) current rule is loosest ever (3) huge fiscal constraints: low growth, record debt interest, ageing population (4) need to run primary surplus just to stop debt rising. Real, tough, trade-offs.
I have a lot of sympathy with the critiques of the current set of fiscal rules, and some sympathy with the critiques of fiscal rules more generally. But too often, "I don't like the fiscal rules" actually seems to mean "whatever the question, the answer is more borrowing". 🧵