🇺🇸S&P 500
The VIX rose above 60 during the 2008 GFC and the 2020 COVID-19 crash. In both cases, the stock market had already bottomed before the VIX dropped below 31. This pattern seems to be repeating in 2025
👉isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500
h/t @dailychartbook@fundstrat@fs_insight
Recently I was targeted by an extremely sophisticated phishing attack, and I want to highlight it here. It exploits a vulnerability in Google's infrastructure, and given their refusal to fix it, we're likely to see it a lot more. Here's the email I got:
Rule of thumb... Always load up on stocks when put/call ratio is 1 or above and Vix is 50+. Doesn't mean you will get the absolute bottom of the market, but you are getting close. Has never failed in the past 40+ years‼️
Well we can’t grow our way out of it any more. We need to reduce interest rates. That reduces how much we pay in interest.
IMO, best way would have been to implement DOGE cuts in an organized manner over 24 months. That would slow the economy, pushing down rates and probably…
Well we can’t grow our way out of it any more. We need to reduce interest rates. That reduces how much we pay in interest.
IMO, best way would have been to implement DOGE cuts in an organized manner over 24 months. That would slow the economy, pushing down rates and probably…
Looking at the past 20 years, March 12 is the last day of the year that has a negative average YTD return for the S&P 500.
From here things tend to improve significantly.
It's time for caution. Retail investors are maxed out, foreign markets are outperforming, DOGE is cutting, and of course the big trade war is looming.
fedguy.com/reasons-for-ca…
It's well known that lower income people tend to suffer much worse health. Is poverty at the heart of this disparity, and, if so, could a large cash transfer help close this gap? We examine an RCT that provided 1000 low income participants $1000/month for 3 years. We find…
Everyone thinks this is an exaggeration but there are so many software engineers, not just at FAANG, who I know personally who literally make ~2 code changes a month, few emails, few meetings, remote work, < 5 hours/ week, for ~$200-300k.
Here are some of those companies:
Traders celebrated Reagan's 1980 win in a big way, thinking that they were getting reforms they wanted. 1981, though, turned out to be an ugly year, and the ugliness lasted all the way to the great 1982 bottom before the post-election hopes and dreams were finally fulfilled. Read…
Traders celebrated Reagan's 1980 win in a big way, thinking that they were getting reforms they wanted. 1981, though, turned out to be an ugly year, and the ugliness lasted all the way to the great 1982 bottom before the post-election hopes and dreams were finally fulfilled. Read… https://t.co/GyQqDNRwmP
elon put it all on black and won yet again
zip2 -> paypal -> solarcity -> tesla -> spacex -> twitter -> trump
incredible set of courageous parlays with very real risk of getting fully wiped each time. even the best and brightest usually stop swinging after one or two big wins
I commissioned a research report, written by @samcallah, to quantify bitcoin's correlation to measures of global money creation relative to other asset classes.
Result: bitcoin moves in the directional of global M2 83% of the time; more than other assets.
lynalden.com/bitcoin-a-glob…
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