David Howe @howeSixMonthLag
Inflation, finance, economics https://t.co/gZNQvyiP4t Joined December 2024-
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Core PCE report suggests stable inflation at 2.9%, notwithstanding lower figure for 6 month lag. sixmonthlag.com/2025/09/six-mo…
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Core PCE report suggests stable 3.0% inflation, above the Fed's long run goal of 2.0%. sixmonthlag.com/2025/09/core-p…
Another month showing Core PCE inflation slowly heating up. Six month annualized inflation crossed the 3% threshold. sixmonthlag.com/2025/07/core-p…
Core PCE inflation gently trending upwards. sixmonthlag.com/2025/07/core-p…
Economic dashboard, what Trump inherited and economic performance through April 2025. sixmonthlag.com/2025/05/249/
Core PCE inflation was at 3.0% over the previous 6 months, annualized, well above the Fed's 2% target. The data release reflected developments in March, before the Apr 2 Liberation Day tariffs. sixmonthlag.com/2025/05/core-p…
New post. You can take moving averages of one month annual inflation is basically the same as the percentage change. Percentage changes in adjoining 3 or 4 month averages underperform. sixmonthlag.com/2025/04/two-al…
With the six month reweighted figure at 3.4%, it appears that inflation is heating up. sixmonthlag.com/2025/02/core-c…
With the six month reweighted figure at 3.4%, it appears that inflation is heating up. sixmonthlag.com/2025/02/core-c…
New core PCE inflation report today. As of Dec 2024, the Fed was making progress towards its long run inflation goal. sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/core-p…
Much better graph showing the Dec 20, 2024 release of Core PCE inflation. sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/review…
Update of chart with data through November, released on Dec 20, 2024. sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/review…
Three month annualized lagged inflation is a poor estimator for 1 year centered inflation - but so is the conventionally reported 1 year lagged inflation. One year inflation estimates the economy as of 7 months ago. sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/one-mo…
Here are two examples of the proper way to annualize:
Annualization makes short term percentage changes directly comparable to one year percentage changes. There are various methods of doing this, and some are better. sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/annual…
Geometrically annualized six month lagged inflation is a better guide to current inflation than the typically reported one year percentage change. sixmonthlag.com/2025/01/estima…
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