Jason Guo, PhD @jason_qiang_guo
CEO of Andon Hong Kong, asset allocator managing a multi-billion dollar portfolio and a global investment team. Hong Kong Joined August 2010-
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This is equally interesting & important as I've NEVER seen this in 18yrs of doing this. 1. The AAII bears just hit 60% and the bull/bear spread hit north of +40%. I have seen that high a print but prints of 60 or higher have only happened a few times. 10/9/08, 3/5/09, 6/3/22,…
Eye on the capex growth of Ali, Huawei, Tencent, ByteDance. The open source decision of Deepseek is a game changer.
估值在历史非常高的位置 但历史也从来没有那么多大科技齐头并进,EPS年增25%+,贵有贵的理由,估值贵,不是看空明年市场的理由 我更担心一些几百倍PE的公司。警惕地看多市场,美股不左侧看空,可以左侧降风险偏好
Beg to differ DeepSeek's progress is direct evidence that US export control *is* working Imagine if there were no export control at all? Where would the US-China AI race be? Every AI model startup founder in China laments the lack of GPU access However, doesn't mean they give…
Beg to differ DeepSeek's progress is direct evidence that US export control *is* working Imagine if there were no export control at all? Where would the US-China AI race be? Every AI model startup founder in China laments the lack of GPU access However, doesn't mean they give…
Howard said he rarely draws pictures to explain bond investment and asset allocation, so these two pieces of sketch drafts must be exclusive collections. Long-term investors should pursue: always good, sometimes great, never terrible.
It is quite funny to see that people could not tell the difference between P(Sahm Rule triggered|Recession) and P(Recession|Sahm Rule triggered).
It is quite funny to see that people could not tell the difference between P(Sahm Rule triggered|Recession) and P(Recession|Sahm Rule triggered).
Stan Druckenmiller is one of the world’s greatest money managers and has traded through market cycles for more than 30 years. In 2015, he gave what is now a timeless discussion about markets and processes at the Lost Tree Club. Here are 7 takeaways from his speech.
What is the result for avoiding the worst 30 days? I bet the return would be much better than capturing the best 30 days during those 20 years.
What is the result for avoiding the worst 30 days? I bet the return would be much better than capturing the best 30 days during those 20 years.
The rise of local lineage institutions is both cause and consequence of diminishing state infrastructural power, per Wang. A key proxy for this long process of "state-involution" per author’s calculations, is taxation as a share of GDP:
As a sociologist studying elite politics in China, I am offering ten observations about the upcoming CCP Party Congress in October. I hope there is something that you are looking for. My prediction is pretty dark; however, you may find hopes if you read through this thread.
And there will be more to come.
We should see a rally around the corner before we enter recession trade.
Say things and make decisions when necessary. The market always has the tendency of over interpreting even a conference without any material message.
Say things and make decisions when necessary. The market always has the tendency of over interpreting even a conference without any material message.
Really amazing
Very sad news.
At the grocery. Wearing my mask. Lady behind me, snarky & loud enough to make sure I heard, “don’t guess she realizes that stupid mask won’t do any good.” Me: “Honey, I’m an off duty nurse, I’m wearing it to protect YOU. But, I can take it off if you’d like.” She practically ran.
All slides from my cancelled NYU teaching are now online Lecture 1: Development, state formation & inequality in the long-run: from ternary to proprietarian societies piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/PikettyN… ⬇️
$USD needs to weaken or else it is time for a new Plaza accord The USD is too strong to everyone’s taste and it would be good news for the World, if the USD started depreciating Don't rule out coordinated action against a strong USD FX weekly is out -> ndea.mk/PlazaAccord
QE4 is inevitable.
Also the question I asked Adam when meeting him for the first time.

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