$COIN , Why I perceive it as an exceptionally profitable opportunistic trade. While $COIN currently only resides in my 'Stalk' list for the week as it hasn't exactly reflect signs of setup validation for this week, I'd like to go through my thought process when analyzing charts through the lens of risk and reward. You may wish to refer to the numerical annotations I've added to my $COIN chart for reference. 1. +120% rally in 5 weeks (jun'23 to jul'23), -35% pullback from reaching 12 x ATR multiples. 2. +160% rally in 2 months (nov'23 to dec'23), -35% pullback from breaching 12 x ATR multiples. 3. Current bullish wedge formation remains bullish. Price look to be in downward pressure but there is volatility consolidation within. 4. Weekly change is now +0.36%, first positive weekly close in 5 weeks. $GBTC is +1.35%, while $WGMI (bitcoin miners ETF) is +8.92%. This is the biggest surge in price action for both since 2/1 & 28/122 respectively. 5. High ADR% 7.58% with ATR range of $9.53. High ADR% stock gives some edge not because they are highly volatile, but because the ATR/ADR range is wide for you to execute/price in tight before it even reaches ATR 100% from low of day based on implied volatility. Example of my entry execution at $129.90 if wedge breakout with high relative volume at time. Price open $126.90, trade up to $129.90 (30% from LoD distance based on ATR), high Relative Volume at time for entry (eg. 129.90 in first hour at 40%, $440 million traded) My focus is i) LoD dist. which is 30% of ATR, this gives the trade potential wriggle room to its 'Mean' of 100% ATR. Easily a 3R trade within a day. Position sizing via difference of $129.90 (entry) - $126.50 (presumed low with additional $0.40 wriggle room) ii) High Relative Volume At Time has to substantial as an affirmation it is a breakout taking place. above example $440 million traded in first hour. That is substantial influx of liquidity flow based on its 50 day average dollar volume of $1.7 billion of 7 hours per session) 6. 6. Currently -9.45% below rising 50-MA (10-Week MA), -1.24% ATR multiple. Allows more wiggle room to size up (add) in a rally leg. This stock can trade up to 12 x ATR multiples. It happened twice in less than 8 months. The above probably sums up my lens of risk/reward of a chart and potential execution Do consider the potential for a failure rate, as seen in $AFRM last week despite its wedge breakout on high volume. However, if a trade with all the highlighted metrics occurs 10 times, I would take advantage of each opportunity. At this stage, my focus is on flawlessly executing my plans, and I extend this advice to all new traders as well. x.com/jfsrevg/status…
$COIN , Why I perceive it as an exceptionally profitable opportunistic trade. While $COIN currently only resides in my 'Stalk' list for the week as it hasn't exactly reflect signs of setup validation for this week, I'd like to go through my thought process when analyzing charts through the lens of risk and reward. You may wish to refer to the numerical annotations I've added to my $COIN chart for reference. 1. +120% rally in 5 weeks (jun'23 to jul'23), -35% pullback from reaching 12 x ATR multiples. 2. +160% rally in 2 months (nov'23 to dec'23), -35% pullback from breaching 12 x ATR multiples. 3. Current bullish wedge formation remains bullish. Price look to be in downward pressure but there is volatility consolidation within. 4. Weekly change is now +0.36%, first positive weekly close in 5 weeks. $GBTC is +1.35%, while $WGMI (bitcoin miners ETF) is +8.92%. This is the biggest surge in price action for both since 2/1 & 28/122 respectively. 5. High ADR% 7.58% with ATR range of $9.53. High ADR% stock gives some edge not because they are highly volatile, but because the ATR/ADR range is wide for you to execute/price in tight before it even reaches ATR 100% from low of day based on implied volatility. Example of my entry execution at $129.90 if wedge breakout with high relative volume at time. Price open $126.90, trade up to $129.90 (30% from LoD distance based on ATR), high Relative Volume at time for entry (eg. 129.90 in first hour at 40%, $440 million traded) My focus is i) LoD dist. which is 30% of ATR, this gives the trade potential wriggle room to its 'Mean' of 100% ATR. Easily a 3R trade within a day. Position sizing via difference of $129.90 (entry) - $126.50 (presumed low with additional $0.40 wriggle room) ii) High Relative Volume At Time has to substantial as an affirmation it is a breakout taking place. above example $440 million traded in first hour. That is substantial influx of liquidity flow based on its 50 day average dollar volume of $1.7 billion of 7 hours per session) 6. 6. Currently -9.45% below rising 50-MA (10-Week MA), -1.24% ATR multiple. Allows more wiggle room to size up (add) in a rally leg. This stock can trade up to 12 x ATR multiples. It happened twice in less than 8 months. The above probably sums up my lens of risk/reward of a chart and potential execution Do consider the potential for a failure rate, as seen in $AFRM last week despite its wedge breakout on high volume. However, if a trade with all the highlighted metrics occurs 10 times, I would take advantage of each opportunity. At this stage, my focus is on flawlessly executing my plans, and I extend this advice to all new traders as well. x.com/jfsrevg/status…
Additionally, worthwhile to look at some of the bitcoin miners which also exhibited the same kind of price rally/pullback. $COIN is an exchange cum brokerage, not a bitcoin miner, so you can't say that it is relatively weak to $WGMI group of companies move over the week.
@jfsrevg My 2 cents. Don't exepct much upside from BTC/Cryptos. BTC is ready for next downside leg and potential bigger drop from my view. I am positioned to the downside from this morning. You can see change in behaivor from bull range to bear range on RSI.
@jfsrevg Excellent write up as always Jeff. Very impressed
@jfsrevg Hi Jeff, I appreciate the write up - a lot! I look forward to read similar ones in the future, if you ever get the time and will to do so You're one of the 3 people I follow actively, learning a ton from you from both mindset and technical perspectives
@jfsrevg prefer it to form a base for a power sustainable move up
@jfsrevg I'm aligned with you Jeff. It's been on my radar too. I did pick some weekly calls last week that gyrated between profile and loss. The volatility here is killing; I'm more comfortable going for the entire genre with $ARKK. Open to any opportunistic trades on this in between.
Hi Jeff, I've been studying your pinned tweets. Got tons of value from that! Thanks for sharing that with us. I'm wondering if I could please ask few clarifying questions on this specific thread. So, as part of your entry strategy, you're focusing on entry with high Rvol and low LoD dist. My question is specifically on these 2 data points. 1) Sometimes it's very hard to get low LoD together with high Rvol, because often times high Rvol has driven the price higher (resulting in high LoD) How did you manage to get these 2 working together? Is it by entering on a lower timeframe? or am I missing something entirely? 2) In relation to Rvol, I noticed that TV's volume on intraday charts (I use the hourly) is 10-20% lower than other charting platform (e.g. TC2000). I've subscribed to the real time data, etc. I contacted the support team and got the explanation (tradingview.com/support/soluti…) In any case, it means calculating Rvol % from intraday chart will result in lower Rvol%. Have you had any issue with this before? What is the minimum Rvol you're looking at before entering into a trade? Thanks again for all your help! And I'm glad to see you're crushing it with the Natural Gas trade!
@jfsrevg did you get it today when it hit $115, nice support level???
