OK, i’ve resisted this until now but let me quickly list the ways in which Richard Murphy is wrong in this rambling attempt to dismiss the reality of GERS buckle up (1/n)
he correctly observes Scotland generates same revenues per head and benefits from £2,600 per head higher spending but says it’s “very hard to work out” how it isn’t very hard to work, it’s clearly explained in the GERS report 2/n
i’ve taken the time to graph that higher spending by category over time (the data’s all there) most of it comes from social protection (pensions and benefits), education, housing and health — these are readily available figures 3/n
[aside: that “other” is mainly “accounting adjustments” which are balanced by revenue adjustments - if they weren’t included Scotland’s revenue per head would be an equivalent amount lower] 4/n
he then rather bizarrely claims the elements of this higher spending for which Westminster is responsible (eg pensions and benefits) happens because “Westminster doesn’t care about” Scotland — spends more on Scotland because doesn’t care about Scotland? 5/n
he then argues that Scotland needs higher spending because on average earnings are lower and it’s colder - in fact geography, population density and the dependency ratio ratio are bigger issues, but whatever … 6/n
… the key point is he is now (badly) explaining why Scotland has higher spending per head in and for Scotland - a fact he sneeringly and sceptically said “is claimed” is a fact he now is arguing in favour of 7/n
he then makes the junior schoolboy error he makes every year, claiming these costs are “dumped on Scotland by Westminster” - but the methodology used for cost attribution is entirely owned by the Scottish Government’s Chief Economist and his team 8/n
next he claims national income is being under reported (by the Scottish Government!) and cites “wind companies in Scotland being paid not to produce energy a prize to anybody who can explain how subsidising companies in scotland *reduces* national income! 9/n
he then claims an independent Scotland wouldn’t spend as much on defence - perhaps he’s not familiar with the SNP’s NATO policy and NATO members’ defence spending commitments🤷🏻♂️ 10/n
and on it goes: he moans about Scotland having to pay for HS2 - this simply confirms what is already obvious: he hasn’t looked at any of the detail (not one penny of HS2 cost is allocated to Scotland in GERS) 11/n
he makes similar wild claims about Scotland being allocated costs in GERS which relate to “subsidising companies in the South East” — this is nonsense, the SG’s economists aren’t idiots, unlike Murphy they have looked at the line level detail (as, fwiw, have I) 12/n
having seen what he gets wrong when he claims he *does* know what he’s talking about, you would be correct in thinking you could ignore things he “very strongly suspects” and “is not at all convinced by” when it comes to revenue allocations … 13/n
… it appears not to have occurred to him that the Scottish Government statisticians in St Andrew’s House might just have looked at this a tad more closely than he has, and are hardly incentivised to under reported Scotland’s revenues 14/n
he then claims Scotland’s kitemarked National Statistics represent “accounting abuse on a giant scale” - a claim he makes based on, as we’ve seen, a series of completely incorrect assertions 15/n
he then says the Scottish Government has “no control over this” - apparently forgetting that the Scottish Government decide to publish these figures and have *complete control* over the methodologies applied he can have no excuse for not knowing this 16/n
he finishes by claiming to be baffled the SNP have ignored him “begging them” to change the way the figures are compiled - so accepting they *do* have control over the methodology, something a moment ago he denied! reading this thread, is anybody surprised? 17/n
to finish, here’s a reminder of what Murphy said when a serious politician interrupted his gish gallop and asked him to actually justify his ramblings suffice to say it didn’t go well for him /ends/ youtu.be/Ni5dTPBgLKE?si…
apologies for all the typos - i really don’t want to waste any more time than necessary addressing this man’s ignorance
@kevverage But he’s not the first professor economics to say that GERS is not reliable or overcomplicated. this professor goes on to say that basically money spent on behalf of Scotland it’s not necessarily spent IN Scotland. This is from 2010 but what’s changed in Scotland since then?
