I simplify macro analysis so you can trade the crypto markets ✦ learn for free: https://t.co/9wFqymTuFt ✦ @ZCTraderskimtalkscrypto.substack.com/subscribeJoined August 2022
Mean Reversion Trading Strategy
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Bull Market Money Flow:
BTC >ETH > Mid and Micro Caps> Crash
This is not guaranteed anymore.
The old money flow cycle is breaking. Here's a Full Guide🧵:
BTC traders: forget Powell’s speeches, watch the 10Y.
- 10Y is stuck at 4.3% (unchanged for 8 months)
- Inflation expectations still 3.3% (vs Fed’s 2% target)
As long as the 10Y refuses to drop, deep cuts and a real BTC breakout stay unlikely.
All eyes on Friday’s Jackson Hole speech.
Crypto is currently hypersensitive to macro.
Bull case: Fed signals a September rate cut.
- Data that strengthens this case → BTC up
- Data that weakens it → BTC down
The importance of value weighted decision making
- Don’t ask an unfit person about health
- An unsuccessful entrepreneur about business
Select inputs carefully…
Crypto traders. Watch the charts at 8.30am ET tomorrow.
This is when CPI is coming out. Which reveals the state of US Inflation.
Markets expect:
- 0.2% MoM
- 2.8% YoY
If the results differ significantly, we will see it on the Bitcoin charts...
Institutional Investors are Back
- U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs end 4 day net outflow streak
- With $91.5 million in inflows on Wednesday
This demands helps drive Bitcoin prices
How to Trade Consistently
-> Trade everyday for 66 days.
-> This is how long it takes to build a habit.
After which point, it becomes routine.
Requiring far less discipline and will power.
Bitcoin has been notably less volatile than usual.
A sign that institutional flows are starting to dominate retail-driven price action.
It’s not the same parabolic retail frenzy we saw in 2021.
It’s calmer, more sustained, and likely reflects structured accumulation.
Bitcoin has been notably less volatile than usual.
A sign that institutional flows are starting to dominate retail-driven price action.
It’s not the same parabolic retail frenzy we saw in 2021.
It’s calmer, more sustained, and likely reflects structured accumulation.
Yesterdays flash crash caused major liquidations
$431 million in long and short positions wiped out
This follows the Feds hawkish comments
Hawkish = not likely to cut rates = implies lower liquidity environments = bearish crypto
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