Lightning Rod Labs @lightningrodai
⚡️ Training AI to predict the future ⚡️ lightningrod.ai New York, NY Joined January 2025-
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We ran an AI forecasting competition on live Polymarket questions 🔮 Competitors: o3, Gemini 2.5 Pro, Grok-4, Claude Opus, Qwen3-32B (our base), and Foresight-32B from @lightningrodai. 🥇 Result: Our Foresight-32B wins on every metric—despite being 10–100× smaller.
35% Putin & Zelenskyy meet before the end of September
We're testing whether AI systems can accurately predict real-world events: For our Q2 Benchmark, 96 forecasting bots competed on 300+ real-world questions for $30,000 in prizes. A hearty congratulations to the winners: 🥇 Panshul42 - $7,550, and they've also generously…
Really interesting and timely! LLMs need to be uncertainty-aware and make calibrated predictions. Some takeaways - 1. This is not a typical benchmark - the future is uncertain and getting 100% is impossible. It is difficult to tell what the upper-bound is! Maybe models are…
Really interesting and timely! LLMs need to be uncertainty-aware and make calibrated predictions. Some takeaways - 1. This is not a typical benchmark - the future is uncertain and getting 100% is impossible. It is difficult to tell what the upper-bound is! Maybe models are…
Major updates to @lightningrodai now live 🚀🚀 ⚡ Faster Forecasts: @CerebrasSystems for context gathering 📊 Question Types: Continuous variables (prices, quantities, numeric values) & multiple choice 🚀 Enhanced API: New endpoints for general & custom models; HeadlineForecast…
@Polymarket 2.5-3.5 sec Credit @lightningrodai
Perplexity's offer to acquire Google Chrome is bold though unlikely to come to fruition. Latest prediction from @lightningrodai
@modenetwork @lightningrodai model says the median will be at 4.5k
@BTurtel @lightningrodai This is pretty cool 🔥
One of SN6 models (@lightningrodai) just stepped beyond binary forecasting 👀 This hints at a shift toward continuous markets: from simple yes/no bets ➡️ to trading precision in numbers. If this sticks, prediction markets could price ANY (!) measurable reality, from inflation…
One of SN6 models (@lightningrodai) just stepped beyond binary forecasting 👀 This hints at a shift toward continuous markets: from simple yes/no bets ➡️ to trading precision in numbers. If this sticks, prediction markets could price ANY (!) measurable reality, from inflation…
YoY change in CPI forecast at 2.7%
Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce announce their engagement in August?
Russia highly unlikely to agree to a cease-fire by Trump's deadline
10% chance of a nuclear weapon detonating in 2025 😬
Very likely GPT-5 launches by the end of August
Unlikely Trump removes Powell in 2025
Apple is catching a lot of flak for its AI efforts. But the fixation on @Apple's seeming inability to innovate in AI misses the bigger picture. Apple is likely to be the ultimate beneficiary of AI–and they can afford to take their time.
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