Manu @maniscripts

tech, vc, energy. views are my own Ams Joined December 2024

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Manu @maniscripts

3 hours ago

prediction markets fail when incentives beat infra. fast adapting feeds hit slower settlement rules calm markets accumulate hidden fragility

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Manu @maniscripts

a day ago

tech can benefit with some cross contamination of intellect

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physical commodity shops require constant hedge contract optimization due to their predictability in acquiring them institutional adoption of prediction markets allows them to hedge on the geopolitical risk premium

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Manu @maniscripts

2 days ago

every commodity event becomes a binary: OPEC cuts? wheat export ban? drought in Argentina? prediction markets strip the noise into yes/no payoffs. commodities 🤝 prediction markets @Kalshi

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Manu @maniscripts

2 days ago

i am truly perplexed at the cost that corporate training companies charge for the absolute mid trivial training provided and then they wonder how to we get our employees to performance maxx for once - incentivize the most competent to teach real content in a disruptive way

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Manu @maniscripts

2 days ago

“I have no stamina and I despise anything that challenges me” - a quote by my PhD friend

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Auli @aulijk

2 days ago

social news app x prediction markets consumer apps like this will unlock audiences casinos + tradfi never imagined would touch a market bullish on Fireplace

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Manu @maniscripts

2 days ago

can’t wait for the pred market course bros evolution

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Manu @maniscripts

2 days ago

the portrayal of intuition has been absolutely slandering in the masses of modern times often disguised to justify unthought out decisions, cortisol spiked responses, or pure laziness by staying high level intuition almost always has to be built by working through the weeds.

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Manu @maniscripts

2 days ago

pre-market perps are a weird edge. the token isn’t live, liquidity is thin, and the first trades basically write the price. watch the insiders. watch the whales. all else is just noise.

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Manu @maniscripts

2 days ago

why have we lost deep perspective capabilities in writing nowadays? every office worker lives in The Trial now kafka almost predicted the machinery of beaurocracy or maybe I am reading the wrong ones…

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Manu @maniscripts

4 days ago

if you look at lying from a game theory perspective, at some point the players (we) will converge on socially optimal lies except our organization is also within networks, each cluster with the possibility of its own limits so the socially optimal level of identity…