Daniel Markovits @markovitis
Phd student in political science @Columbia studying voter responses to democratic threat in America. danielbmarkovits.com New York, USA Joined February 2017-
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New article! @markovitis and I examine how prosecutions of political leaders affect public opinion by studying the valuable case of Trump's criminal prosecution. Key finding: rhetoric from Trump's prosecutor marginally ⬇️ intention of voting for Trump but massively ⬆️ backlash 1/
This is a case where the public opinion literature on democratic norms is very practically useful: voters don't like efforts to rig elections in isolation, even as they won't massively punish candidates who back such proposals in general elections (where many other policies are…
This is a case where the public opinion literature on democratic norms is very practically useful: voters don't like efforts to rig elections in isolation, even as they won't massively punish candidates who back such proposals in general elections (where many other policies are…
Well something has changed! Though it is not clear it is norms eroding so much as members being more willing to take on slightly more risk/disruption to help their party.
Well something has changed! Though it is not clear it is norms eroding so much as members being more willing to take on slightly more risk/disruption to help their party.
Well, thermostatic public opinion is coming to science and higher education.
Well, thermostatic public opinion is coming to science and higher education.
Unlike the primary, this seems like an election that would actually benefit from RCV.
Unlike the primary, this seems like an election that would actually benefit from RCV.
Obviously we don't see the ones that don't get covered but it seems like these "test some intra-party fight through slanted polling wording" survey write-ups are pretty good at generating earned media.
Obviously we don't see the ones that don't get covered but it seems like these "test some intra-party fight through slanted polling wording" survey write-ups are pretty good at generating earned media.
Today in @TheAtlantic, I write that Trump is "baiting the courts" — following a strategy that authoritarians from Turkey to Mexico have used to weaken the judiciary. The key idea behind "court-baiting:" adopting policies that are popular but illegal. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
This is an interesting mechanism that blunts the political effects of thermostatic opinion shifts: the out of power party reads polls, sees the backlash to new admin's policy and adopts more extreme policies.
This is an interesting mechanism that blunts the political effects of thermostatic opinion shifts: the out of power party reads polls, sees the backlash to new admin's policy and adopts more extreme policies.
This stuff sounds a lot like a democratic norm, party officers can legally do whatever they want but there is a strong intuition from voters and many elites that the formal party should not take a side.
This stuff sounds a lot like a democratic norm, party officers can legally do whatever they want but there is a strong intuition from voters and many elites that the formal party should not take a side.
🧵 Why do facts often change beliefs but not attitudes? In a new WP with @YamilRVelez and Scott Clifford, we caution against interpreting this as rigidity or motivated reasoning. Often, the beliefs *relevant* to people's attitudes are not what researchers expect.
These headlines should really be accompanied by the partisanship of the people who watched.
These headlines should really be accompanied by the partisanship of the people who watched.
My writing for @TheAtlantic on "How to Prevent Trump from Defying the Courts" 👇 Here's the key idea: "When courts confront a powerful, noncompliant executive, three paths enable the judiciary to stop an executive power grab." theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Fun new ways to signal cultural moderation.
Fun new ways to signal cultural moderation.
Biden is...ignoring the law...to help Trump?
This stuff about the Green Party is interesting from a democratic norms perspective. Is it pro-democratic for Republicans to try to get Green Party candidates on the ballot or Democrats to try to remove them?
This stuff about the Green Party is interesting from a democratic norms perspective. Is it pro-democratic for Republicans to try to get Green Party candidates on the ballot or Democrats to try to remove them?
Now this is an argument many survey researchers would enjoy.
Whether "changing coalitions diminish EC bias" or "Dem Campaign was really effective" explains this seems really important. I assume some of both.
Whether "changing coalitions diminish EC bias" or "Dem Campaign was really effective" explains this seems really important. I assume some of both.
Like when someone accidentally releases an academic's file drawer-ed null results!
Like when someone accidentally releases an academic's file drawer-ed null results!
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