• mashabani Profile Picture

    Mohammad Ali Shabani @mashabani

    a week ago

    Always read @alihashem_tv. Taking stock of a tumultuous year for #Iran and its allies, he accurately pinpoints one key dynamic: the tendency to react rather than act. Will Khamenei opt to escape the “reactive entrapment” that Iran is caught in? amwaj.media/en/article/bey…

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  • mashabani Profile Picture

    Mohammad Ali Shabani @mashabani

    a week ago

    "Iran’s approach during the war with Israel represented a broader effort to create a strategic environment for retaliation without locking itself into escalatory commitments that could narrow its future maneuverability. In essence, the Islamic Republic appeared intent on turning the war into a political liability for its adversaries. This balancing act—projecting strength while preserving long-term flexibility—suggests that Tehran did not view the conflict as an irreversible paradigm shift. This calibrated restraint, however, underscores a structural vulnerability in Iran’s doctrine: namely, its chronic reactive posture. Since the US assasination of Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020 in Iraq, and later with the Palestinian Hamas movement’s Oct. 7, 2023 surprise attack on Israel, Tehran has consistently absorbed the first blow before calibrating a response. This predictability allows adversaries to shape the tempo of conflict and dominate escalation cycles. Remaining trapped in this reactive mould risks ceding the initiative to others even as Iran tries to leverage crises into opportunities. Strategic theoreticians refer to this dynamic as “reactive entrapment”; a situation in which one actor consistently plays catch-up while others define the timeline, geography and narrative. In this framework, Iran is often limited to responding, confirming or denying, rarely initiating. The limitations of Iran’s regional alliances compound the challenges of its reactive posture. Despite longstanding rhetoric about supporting the Palestinian cause and confronting Israeli influence, the Islamic Republic has struggled to convert its ideological framework into a coherent, exportable political model. Meanwhile, its reliance on the ‘Axis of Resistance’ developed over the years is under visible strain."

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  • Mohsenhashmi610 Profile Picture

    Mohsen @Mohsenhashmi610

    a week ago

    @mashabani @alihashem_tv 🍀همه می‌دونند که وسط مذاکرات جنگ شد و دلیلش چی بود و اینکه آمریکا و آژانس چه کردند ! پس هرکسی که خودش‌رو به خریت می‌زنه مشکل از خودشه چون این ذلالت پایانی نداره ‌.

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