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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

Commodity Market Analyst at @StoneX_Official. Tweets are my own and do not necessarily represent StoneX positions, strategies, or opinions. Joined February 2025
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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

15 hours ago

With new crop sales of 83.3 mbu to close out the '24/'25 marketing year, we are officially entering the '25/'26 marketing year with the highest #corn commitments on record at 822 mbu. That's up 186% year-over-year and 2.1% above the previous record from '21/'22. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

a week ago

With new crop sales of 83.3 mbu to close out the '24/'25 marketing year, we are officially entering the '25/'26 marketing year with the highest #corn commitments on record at 822 mbu. That's up 186% year-over-year and 2.1% above the previous record from '21/'22. #oatt https://t.co/fbBloKCb00

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

a day ago

With a second consecutive 3% week-on-week increase, Argentina's #wheat conditions now sit at 79% G/E, nearly 3 times higher than the previous 5YA (28%) at this time and marking the highest of any week since at least 2018. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

2 days ago

Anyone following the US #phosphate market knows we've had a supply issue for several years now. July US import data was released this morning, showing the weakest back-to-back month stretch of phosphate imports in 10 years... That does not help the outlook. #fertilizer #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

3 days ago

Today's 4% week-on-week decline in national #soybean conditions (now @ 65% G/E) makes the state level changes in August match up a bit more clearly with the observed rainfall during the month. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

a week ago

Today's 4% week-on-week decline in national #soybean conditions (now @ 65% G/E) makes the state level changes in August match up a bit more clearly with the observed rainfall during the month. #oatt https://t.co/mCYCzol80x

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

4 days ago

Another week of huge #wheat export inspections at 29.5 mbu, beating the top-end estimate by 3.8 mbu; last week's 12-year high was also revised even higher to 37.5 mbu. Cumulative #wheat inspections of 244 mbu are up 14.5% year-on-year, off to their best start since 2020. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

a week ago

With 82.3 mbu of weekly new crop ('25/'26) #corn sales, cumulative totals remain roughly double last year's pace and are now only 2.7% (~20 mbu) behind 2021's record pace. If we see 66 mbu of '25/'26 #corn sales on next week's report, we will break said record. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

a week ago

Despite seeing the biggest weekly new crop ('25/'26) #soybean sales of the marketing year @ 50.4 mbu, cumulative sales continue to fall further behind typical paces (-28.3% vs. last year, -53.7% vs. 5YA) amid the ongoing absence of Chinese demand. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

a week ago

After Monday's unexpected 1% increase, US #soybean ratings (69% G/E) are back to where they started the month. Below is a comparison of 30-yr rainfall anomaly for #soybean growing areas (% of normal) during this time vs. state level changes over that span... #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

a week ago

With yesterday's unexpected 1% week-on-week uptick in US #soybean ratings (now @ 69% G/E), the condition index for both #corn (still @ 71% G/E) and #soybeans are sitting at their highest level at this time since 2016. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

2 weeks ago

Much of the strength in weekly #wheat export inspections was driven by huge shipments to Asian destinations with Indonesia, the Philippines, and South Korea leading the way, all with 5+ MMT, respectively. Also solid shipments to Vietnam at ~2.45 MMT. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

2 weeks ago

Massive US #wheat export inspections on this morning's report at 34.8 mbu. Not only did this blow past the top-end trade estimate of 20.2 mbu, it also marks the biggest weekly #wheat inspections in roughly 12 years. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

2 weeks ago

Same story this week--biggest new crop #soybean sales of the year @ 42 mbu, but that's failing to keep pace with China absent. New crop #Corn sales continue to impress @ 112.6 mbu. Cumulative '25/'26 totals: #Corn: 657 mbu (+211% y/o/y) #soybeans: 215 mbu (-22% y/o/y) #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

3 weeks ago

Same story this week--biggest new crop #soybean sales of the year @ 42 mbu, but that's failing to keep pace with China absent. New crop #Corn sales continue to impress @ 112.6 mbu. Cumulative '25/'26 totals: #Corn: 657 mbu (+211% y/o/y) #soybeans: 215 mbu (-22% y/o/y) #oatt https://t.co/KAWpmCoRLl

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

2 weeks ago

A highlight of the longer-term trend of the US losing market share to Brazil in China's #soybean imports. We've officially got 0 bushels of '25/'26 #soybeans sold to China. For context, we had 40 mbu on the books at this time in '24, previous 5YA for the week is 218 mbu. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

2 weeks ago

#China's official July import data was released today, showing another record month of #soybean imports from #Brazil last month @ 10.393 MMT. This is also the first time in history that China's #soybean imports from Brazil have exceeded 10 MMT in three consecutive months. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

3 weeks ago

Kind of a boring export inspections report this morning with the only real standout being an 8-week high in #milo (#sorghum) shipments @ 3.3 mbu, split between Ethiopia & S. Sudan. The lack of Chinese demand has USDA pegging '24/'25 exports at 95 mbu, a 6-year low. #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

3 weeks ago

I was honored to take part!

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StoneX Group Inc. @StoneX_Official

3 weeks ago

I was honored to take part!

Mike Castle retweeted
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Josh Linville @JLinvilleFert

3 weeks ago

Hearing that India just locked up 600K tons of DAP from Saudi Arabia for Sept/Oct shipment which is 70% of what they exported last year for those 2 months. N.A. farmers, hope you were serious about cutting back. S.A. was our best bet for imports (lowest tariff rate).

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

3 weeks ago

Biggest week of new crop #soybean sales so far this year at 41.6 mbu; #Corn sales down from week prior but still big at 80.6 mbu. Polar opposite stories when we look at cumulative '25/'26 sales totals: #Corn: 544 mbu (+208% y/o/y) #soybeans: 173 mbu (-19.7% y/o/y) #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

3 weeks ago

An update on yesterday’s chart, now looking at changes from June to FSA data (was Oct, now Aug). In the last 20 years, USDA had only cut #corn acres from Mar to June and followed up with an increase into incorporation once (2010: +0.35M, over 6x smaller than yesterday). #oatt

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Mike Castle @mike_castle2

3 weeks ago

Huge #corn yield aside—this acreage increase is very odd... Since 2005, #USDA has only adjusted #corn acres from the June est to Aug 5 times—today was the only increase. In the prior 4 (‘08, ‘19, ‘22, ‘24), acreage was cut from Aug to final every year; totals on chart. #oatt

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