B @polyticstru
Master of the universe - EM / G10 trading (FX & Rates) Joined August 2019-
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using claude to track some distressed debt - 2 days insane productivity - buildout an agent that deliver all that i need to know to have a full overview
2m ago, what changed so far?
Thinking about EMs dynamics, foreigners are back into BRZ, after an intense end of the year, BRL 5.75 and rates 100 bps tighter, most locals lost this, will they jump in?
Brazil agro is having a terrible moment, guy just hit me up, need a 4y 60mm loan ~50mm guarantees, low LTV. how much I would charge for that? No clue, should be wayyy above what he was thinking…
Better explanation that I read in all time about decomposing PnL.
Better explanation that I read in all time about decomposing PnL.
Brazil Finance Minister will be on vacation from 2nd jan to ->>?? When they will take them down? Local markets are too stressed out and they didn’t moved him yet. Government think that all will fade with time? If they don’t start moving, 7 USDBRL will be bid soon.
Brazil Finance Minister will be on vacation from 2nd jan to ->>?? When they will take them down? Local markets are too stressed out and they didn’t moved him yet. Government think that all will fade with time? If they don’t start moving, 7 USDBRL will be bid soon.
Debt wall 2024 7tn ust roll 2025 -> where this money Will come from ? EMs? @MacroAlf
Happy hanukkah and Christmas for my friends, blessed year for us all
Tough days for BZ, every fx spot intervention got de CDS 10bps wider, we came from 160 to 220 bps today, tomorrow will be 250? Brazilian government clearly doesn’t care about his population.
Tough week for Brazilian traders, at least the fiscal package was released (after long weeks) in line with expected, but some prints concerns, projections over 2026 looks a bit weird. BRL -3.27% WoW / rates widened 60bps (got as high as 110 bps) - priced in ~15% final rate
XBI coming down after announcement from RFK, research on the field is expanding quickly and will expand more due to AI, and it’s sure legging tech companies… If it come down to 85 I will collect more.
Distressed credit getting tough
Divergência foi ruim, economia piorou e o mundo implodiu desde então
Divergência foi ruim, economia piorou e o mundo implodiu desde então

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