Scott Strand @scottrstrand1
Minneapolis, MN Joined August 2018-
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Total HRW deliverable #wheat stocks are a 6 year high (103 mbu) and starting to decline. Seasonally HRW stocks starts drawing in October. The lack of Russian wheat exports and SE Asian miller demand ahead of what should be a healthy AUSSIE harvest can be supportive HRW demand
Oil prices “will skyrocket” and immediately exceed $100/bbl without Russian crude supplies to the global market, Vladimir Putin says
Comments made by President Trump on Truth Social is moving the #soybeans market in late session trading. NLP and QIS trading for the win.
🇨🇳: Ten billion Soybeans 🇺🇸: Ten billion for the Big Guy *sold* (bury the trade)
🇨🇳: Ten billion Soybeans 🇺🇸: Ten billion for the Big Guy *sold* (bury the trade) https://t.co/p4W1lrfVMZ
Another record broiler chick placement number. Good for corn and soymeal demand? Yes, but corn demand needs cattle. No cattle crossing the US/Mexican border makes MY 2025/26 corn feed use vulnerable to reductions and the September 1 Grains Stocks report showed this to be true.
Another promising Australian #wheat crop is brewing. USDA estimates a 25.0 mmt export program. Private forecasts are 24.5-25.2 mmt. A robust Australian wheat export program can support HRW exports to SE Asia as millers look to the US for mid-protein to blend.
India is considering buying US corn for ethanol. A rumor but a good one. India represents approx. 13% of US #ethanol exports. Ethanol is mentioned in the stalled US/India tariff talks but more corn disappearance to support local production is always positive.
The March'26 KC/Chicago #wheat spread. Price is finding resistance just above par at the 200 MA. Questions about Russian exports and a large low protein Aussie export program can be positive inputs for KW. French exports and US/Australia hedging are headwinds for Chicago
In a surprise move the US will be implementing a 100% tariff on all pharmaceutical imports. A clear shot at India and China along with the American consumer. Read the labels of where the common drugs are made. Not the US.
At 257,000 contracts, the weekly ICE Cotton On Call Open futures is a bearish fundamental input for the US #cotton trade as the influence of the southern hemisphere producers continues to pressure prices.
US soybean meal is losing competitiveness to Argentina. FOB +30 Days US meal exports is historically expensive and not even competitive. Weakening Argentina currency and suspension of the local export tariff makes US meal uncompetitive.
Last week it was reported that the Kremlin was pressuring private Russian #wheat exporters to accelerate the export pace. The export tariff was raised this week by "1.5 fold" through 9/30. How does raising the export tariff on ag commodities raise export volumes?
From inflation hawk to labor dove, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari pivots while revising his neutral rate from 2% to 3.1% which essentially says the Fed’s goal of 2% inflation is unattainable. Americans should accept higher prices as he advocates for 2 more rate cuts in 2025.
Building on a post from @SusanNOBULL about US farm economics, we commented about the challenging price of #wheat. Using USDA data since MY 1866/67 the WTD farm price of wheat has risen from $2.06/bu to $5.30/bu or 157%. Yields have risen from 11 bpa to 52.7 bpa, +379%. Over…
Lower Mississippi river water levels are low which is weakening local river #corn basis while pushing NOLA FOB values higher. The rising +30 Day FOB differential between NOLA and Brazil Prana makes US corn for export uncompetitive which can pressure futures prices.
December'25 Kansas City/Chicago #wheat falls again as IKAR raises Russian wheat production by .5 mmt to 86.0 mmt.
As expected the US agrees to lift the 19% import tariff on Indonesian palm oil, cocoa and rubber. This can reduce supply driven price pressures for domestic midstream consumers (prepared foods) where palm is a key ingredient. #soybeans What did US ag get from this deal??
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