We help systematic and discretionary grain traders quantify the impact of weather on grains to improve trading.
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https://t.co/4QxAJsGhWMcropprophet.com State College, PAJoined January 2018
Is freeze risk rising as harvest nears?
Watch the video for:
1.) County-level avg first 32/30/28°F freeze dates (1981–2024)
2.) ECMWF 15-day probs for 36–30°F lows
3.) Millions of corn/soybean bushels at risk by temp threshold
👉🎥 youtu.be/sJg5H4u0rKE#oatt#Corn#Soybeans
#GrainTraders: Last week’s ECMWF ensemble called for cool & dry across the Corn Belt. This week’s Forecast of the Forecast shows it was spot on.
Verified:
• Cooler-than-normal temps
• Dry trend in IA/IL/IN
Model validation=trading edge.
🎥 Full video: youtu.be/fQHOGN_EyYU
📊 What does this mean?
1.) The 13-day precip increase is one of the largest on record for this time of year—based on an 8-year archive, 30-day window centered on today.
2.) Traders long on a dryness thesis: today’s 12Z fcst could test your conviction. Risk is rising.
#oatt
📊 What does this mean?
1.) The 13-day precip increase is one of the largest on record for this time of year—based on an 8-year archive, 30-day window centered on today.
2.) Traders long on a dryness thesis: today’s 12Z fcst could test your conviction. Risk is rising.
#oatt
The Forecast of the Forecast highlights what the ECMWF fcst will likely show before you walk into work on Tuesday morning.
➡️ Cooler-than-nrml temps likely from TX to ND
➡️ Dry bias holds across IL, IA & MS Valley
Watch the video here: youtu.be/uS9SStI0S94#oatt#AgWx#Corn
The US Grain Market Forecast of the Forecast "verification" is posted at youtu.be/aKPKBpNXK3Q.
The 1-7 day temperature and precipitation forecasts worked out well for those who watched Friday's FoF.
Grain traders:
This week’s Forecast of the Forecast points to a high-probability cool-down for the Corn Belt & Plains (week 1), followed by uncertainty in week 2. Dry signal remains firm— especially across the majority of the #corn belt.
Full video: youtu.be/UK7dtt3RlYo
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