Steno Research @stenodata
Your source for actionable and independent macro economic and geopolitical research. Check our websites for insights, model portfolio, trade alerts and more! stenoresearch.com Joined June 2023-
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Steno Research Explainer: How the world got dependent on American chips.
Hong Kong's Bitcoin and Ethereum Futures ETFs have amassed $167.8 million in assets under management. The newly approved Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in Hong Kong will see much greater AUM. Full note: buff.ly/3vJySyn
Do we have an outright MELT UP in commodities ahead of us? We tend to think so. Our trading piece -> buff.ly/4asodXF For FREE nuggets, sign up here -> buff.ly/3IeEF1g
Previous Bitcoin halvings have consistently boosted its price within a year. The current trends echo the second halving, hinting the imminent halving may trigger a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event. Discover the reasons in our FREE note: buff.ly/4cHLnLo
Commodities have truly broken out now.. Are you paying attention? More -> stenoresearch.com/daily-post/som…
From Stealth QE to Stealth QT? Q1 = Material Stealth QE Q2 = Material Stealth QT More -> buff.ly/4afi7Kl
IS GERMAN REFLATION A HEAD FAKE? Just as markets thought that Germany was rebounding including a sharp rotation in to European stocks in March, here goes German high frequent data on electricity... Not good.. More in our Germany Watch -> buff.ly/4avlqN7
FINDING VALUE RELATIVE TO THE BUSINESS CYCLE What is cheap and what is expensive relative to the business cycle? Cyclical value trades (if that is a thing) are still found mostly in Asia, where we also like the odds of FX appreciation. More -> buff.ly/49bpuB8
Polar to Japan, Chinese equities have fundamentals working in favor and still look cheap on most measures despite the recent strong performance. This week's EM on whether China is becoming consensus -> buff.ly/3PxiCqR
3 Fed cuts priced in for 2024 Meanwhile in inflation-space:
The Port of Baltimore is very important for shipping in the US 10% of the tankers flow in/out of the US total is out of Baltimore (see chart) It is the busiest U.S. port for car shipments, handling more than 750,000 vehicles in 2023..
Retail and US institutional investors are now positioned similarly to global market participants in Bitcoin and Ethereum, as the Coinbase Premium Index has returned to neutral territory. More in this week's Crypto Crisp: buff.ly/4asa4cD
USD liquidity -> sideways to UP EUR liquidity -> DOWN Guess what inflation spreads will do from here, folks? Fed/ECB/BoJ/PBoC watch -> buff.ly/3TGo3pM
50% of S&P GSCI basket is up YoY yet the basket is not positive. 2024 has been about picking the winners up until this point, which include crude, copper and both precoius metals.
Our structured approach to harvesting macro value has yield 18.33% since the inception of our strategies in May-2023 with strong sharpe-ratios and low correlation to risk assets. Find out more -> buff.ly/43jjROW
Commodities are breaking out of ranges and it typically triggers a self-reinforcing loop! See illustration here! For FREE nuggets on macro and finance, sign up here -> buff.ly/3UTzJq3
FREE ARTICLE by @ulriksimmelholt Inflation expectations are trading around 2.25-2.5 percent and yet there is a sentiment among the Average Joe that the cost of living is still high. It’s Vibeflation. So how to deal with this? Well, just cut rates! buff.ly/3wSyOMM
youtube.com/watch?v=FxhIp5… Guest: Joseph Wang aka. @FedGuy12 Liquidity levels are improving in USDs and more may be upcoming via the depletion of the ON RRP. Will the Fed move towards more benign balance sheet policies over the course of the year? And how about a potential operation…
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For the first time in over two years, Ethereum has surged past the $4,000 mark 🤘
Volume leads price they say.. Here is the China version #China
There are many more factors indicating that the crypto market will continue to rise rather than fall: - No end in sight for the increase in US liquidity - Ethereum's Dencun upgrade this week - The Bitcoin Halving event - Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs - Potential Ethereum spot ETF -…
Better late than never. I just wrapped up my International Business bachelor's degree at Copenhagen Business School. It took me an extra six months, but I got there in the end. The conclusion was rather unceremonious yesterday, just receiving a grade that confirmed my 180 ECTS.…
1) It is of no surprise to most that I started at @stenodata about six weeks ago, following my last day at Saxo Bank. We are a small independent research boutique on macro, equities, geopolitical, emerging markets, and energy, led by @AndreasSteno.
@stenodata @AndreasSteno You always do such a great job. Bob as always a terrific guest.
The Ethereum staking balance continues to grow, which, in turn, increases the issuance and reduces liquidity across the Ethereum ecosystem. The long-term solution to address this issue is to implement minimum viable issuance. This involves reducing the Ethereum staking reward,…
@MadsEberhardt @Cointelegraph @Pentosh1 Btw @MadsEberhardt just recently started as our Crypto analyst at @stenodata Great guy and talent - follow for more valuable content 👍🙏
Remember that you can find "Macro Sunday" on YouTube as well. Last Sunday we hosted both @francesdonald and Dennis Lockhart for a discussion on how to approach investing during a pause from central banks Find the links below!
As we wagered, the PBoC has been defending the 7.30 area vigilantly. But can they hold the line or will they be forced to abandon ship? "EM by EM #21 Why China is uninvestable yet tough to short " Full article ---> buff.ly/3Lnyqu8
We hosted Michael Cembalest from JP Morgan for a discussion on "The Rasputin Effect" in the US economy! Find "Macro Sunday" on all podcast apps and YouTube!
Good luck to Biden ahead of Q4! SPR going to be depleted soon, if he continues to battle Saudi Arabia. Full analysis here -> stenoresearch.com/watch-series/e…
CAN OIL RALLY 25% FURTHER IN Q4? The Saudis will bring oil markets in to a material supply deficit in Q4. More -> stenoresearch.com/watch-series/e…
The ECB has a price stability mandate and a target of 2% inflation. Lagarde has done nothing but repeat the words "Data dependent" in the past pressers without any guidance. Now Euro area MUICP is at 5.30% and markets are starting to lean toward a pause A) The ECB shifts from…
Wow. The landed gentry are the only ones who can vote. We've seen this before.
@krassenstein Agreed on all. We’re changing polls to allow votes only by verified users. That’s critical to avoid polls getting bot-spammed on controversial issues. The ADL has done a lot of good work in prior decades, but has been overzealous in recent years & hijacked by woke mind virus.
🎙️I had fun with this. If you haven't watched it yet, take a few minutes. Lot's on how 🇨🇳China's economy works, how the bureaucracy works, and what's ahead.
This week, we host the great @TonyNashNerd in Macro Sunday and talk USD Patriots vs CNY Patriots! Tune in on Apple Podcast or your preferred podcast app Apple Podcast: buff.ly/3QUwFZ5 Spotify: buff.ly/44yllFe Youtube: buff.ly/3siUOht
No, you shouldnt rule out China is up to trouble exhibit 1
Trends for United States
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