Keith Bush @thoreval
Quantitative horseplayer 🇭🇰 | @EquusModel & @HKUltraModel admin Little Rock, Arkansas Joined May 2022-
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I thought he pushed off. Here’s an even more egregious view from @roguewolf007. Tyler’s grabbing gear.
I thought he pushed off. Here’s an even more egregious view from @roguewolf007. Tyler’s grabbing gear. https://t.co/HDqk5uFOAv
Nothing to see here @ChurchillDowns
Nothing to see here @ChurchillDowns
Pretty clear the Japanese will have to win by open lengths to get fair treatment by NBC and Churchill.
Dear Churchill Downs stewards. There seems to be an error in the final ordering given the very obvious and repeated fouling that is visible in 4K on the NBC feed.
Is this NBC coverage about a horse race or election exit polls? Bizarre.
Literally put in my Derby bets at 11am to avoid the 100% chance of tote meltdown later.
I just love betting into these monster win pools on big days. I'm on #8 Ka Ying Rising in the 10th.
I said this earlier, but I think it’s worth repeating. Look up the Japanese word “kaizen”. Forever Young is a technology iteration toward winning the Derby. The closest yet. The ship. The workouts. The hood. It’s all in the script.
Just finished. A good listen. Fellow Erieite, Mr Andy Beyer, holding court.
Just finished. A good listen. Fellow Erieite, Mr Andy Beyer, holding court.
Here's my fair odds line for the #KentuckyDerby. In my accompanying piece for @DailyRacingForm, I discuss the benefits of making a fair odds line, and how it influences my wagering strategy for the race. 📊 drf.com/news/fair-odds…
My fair odds for Kentucky Derby 150:
Before reading the article below, consider this. The most widely accepted definition of AI is the one given by Russell & Norvig in their textbook which states AI is "the study of [intelligent] agents that receive precepts from the environment and take action".…
Great podcast. @derby1592 provides some signal-to-noise corrections on Forever Young. Worth a listen. overcast.fm/+RQi5XVRs4
Let the week of small sample statistics whack-a-mole commence!
Ed DeRosa @EJXD2
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Hiroshi Ando, stable manager for Forever Young, said Sunday that jockey Ryusei Sakai didn't claim foul because "both horses were fighting together. ... We wanted to win, we couldn't make history. We're really proud of of our horse." Forever Young & T O Password head home Tuesday
@EJXD2 @KentuckyDerby The race was stolen from Forever Young and the Japanese.
This has nothing to do with Cat1 or Cat2 and everything to do with the competency of those in the stewards’ stand. It’s their job to post the inquiry and not rely on a jockey — in this case one perhaps unfamiliar with our rules — to claim foul
Arbitrary nature of U.S. stewarding under Category 2 on full display again. Incident btwn Sierra Leone & Forever Young would get a LONG look under Cat 1 anywhere in world given margins. Meanwhile, stewards here under Cat 2!!!don’t even light the lamp? What are we doing?
The interference cost him a nose but not two noses? Seriously?
It's actually amusing to read comments from people who have never trained or ridden thoroughbreds. They have ZERO understanding of the toll it takes knocking an 1,100 lb animals hind end out from beneath him at full speed not once but 3 to 4 times! Had no dog but Clueless Clowns
@TimeformUSfigs @Equibase Forever Young traveled almost 40 more feet than the winner. Game of inches.
@barbaro1420 I have a database with 2 million starters in it and I build big data analytics platforms, and have been doing so for 30 years. I'm also a half decent horseplayer. What metric do you suggest we compare your opinion to?
@barbaro1420 This business about Irad being overbet is a myth. Check the ROI on his favorites. If he was overbet, the ROI would be lower than the track takeout, and it is not. Irad is actually persistently underbet because of this myth.
@HorseToWatch Shouldn’t have even came to that. The sign should’ve been lit immediately.
It shouldn't be up to a jockey to claim foul, and we've seen foul claims fail to get communicated properly in past Derbies anyway. Never mind the potential language barriers for Forever Young's connections.
I think this is pretty obvious to anyone with a modicum of objectivity, but Sierra Leone should have been disqualified to 3rd. Would be nice to see some explanation from the stewards as to why there wasn't even an inquiry. I guess in the Derby (almost) anything goes.
@boarman_sean @RepoleStable Hey.. we (AmWager) give a shit. We may not have had Derby but that was not our choice. We've got a number of things in the works for customers and are still hopeful we can fix our content issues in the near future.
@DanonymousMan Forever Young was easily the best of those. Dan had the best ride though. Brian Hernandez is an gent and I’m happy for him
@DanonymousMan It's funny. Had Fierceness been the horse mugged the entire stretch instead of Forever Young, the post race narrative would be a whole different world of takes. Comical actually.
@Tinky47flat Horseplayers deserve more transparency from stewards in the U.S. and there is no doubt some of them are incompetent fools.
This and many other reasons are why Hong Kong gets about 40 percent of my total handle now.
‡ A Study in Contrast: Two Approaches to Stewarding, and Racetrack Transparency The first image is of a Hong Kong Jockey Club's Racing Incident Report, produced by the HKJC Stewards for race nine (a mere handicap), contested on April 28th. Such reports are created for every…
@TheBigAStabile I finally hit the tri this year!!
Sha Tin 5/5 A few noses and a few horrific selections from cashing much of anything at Churchill all weekend. Probably should stop playing to the hype of big days and stick with what I know. Will provide update when I feel like I actually know anything. Best of luck #HKracing
@jayprivman Imo they should ban Bob for two more years
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