Flatpack Homunculus 🏴☠️ @tryingattimes
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Trump is withdrawing support for NATO training in the Baltic. It’s almost as if he (or people in his administration) is taking orders directly from the Kremlin. Anyone supporting Trumpism, including Farage, is a Quisling of the worst order.
In the next thread I will talk about the North Atlantic... and the severe lack of maritime patrol aircraft, anti-submarine warfare frigates, and attack submarines Europe faces there if the US under Trump or Vance refuses to fight their beloved putin. 36/end
of the Baltic Sea (for which Gotland is the key) Europe will lose the war. To ensure victory I would permanently base a multinational (Swedish, German, French, British, Italian) brigade on Gotland, and add Patriot or SAMP/T air-defence and NSM or RBS-15 coastal batteries. 35/n
Can Europe drive russian forces out from the Baltics? Yes... but it will take months to assemble the necessary force and it can only succeed it European air forces can fly safely over the Baltic Sea and hit russian positions in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Without control 34/n
air forces air supremacy over the Baltic theater. Can Europe stop a russian invasion of the Baltic nations with the currently deployed forces? No, but we can make it very costly if we control the Baltic Sea and our air forces can bomb the invading russian ground forces. 33/n
strengthening Gotland's defence (currently a russian airborne division could easily capture it), on Scandinavian nations adding coastal and air defence batteries, and everyone buying 100s of cruise missiles to hit russian air defence batteries inside russia and give European 32/n
equipped with towed array sonars will find and sink these two submarines if they leave port. The Baltic Sea will be the main theater of a NATO-russia war, because here russia will invade and attempt to extinguish three NATO nations. And victory depends on Sweden 31/n
Baltic Sea and even though none of the Baltic NATO members fields Maritime Patrol Aircraft, Poland and Sweden field capable anti-submarine warfare helicopters, which combined with the Swedish submarine force and the 17 Finnish, Polish and Swedish corvettes and missile boats 30/n
Sweden. Victory in the Baltics hinges on control of the sea and the air space above it. NATO nations must strive to annihilate all russian ships and coastal defence batteries in the Baltics within days of the war's start As for russian submarines: there are just two in the 29/n
russia will be able occupy Gotland and thus shield its armored formations invading the Baltic nations from NATO air strikes. Poland's example, which has ordered "several hundred" NSM missiles, and is building up formidable coastal defences, should be followed by Finland and 28/
through dispersal, deception and camouflage, as russia's Baltic Sea Fleet fields way more missile boats and corvettes than Baltic NATO members and if russia should manage to control the sea and deploy its air defence frigates and destroyer into the central Baltic Sea, then 27/n
in the center of the Baltic Sea and turn it into an anti-air and anti-ship missile base. That must not happen as I keep warning for now 10 years. Control of the Baltics depends on NATO coastal missile units surviving the first russian missile strike 26/n euromaidanpress.com/2015/03/22/got…
Of course the best defense would NATO preemptively striking all russian missile units... alas NATO as a defensive alliance will have to absorb the first russian salvo, before striking back... russia will also try to land marines and paratroopers on Sweden's Gotland island 25/n
russia's only option is to strike every Baltic Sea nation with cruise and ballistic missiles in a surprise first strike and hope to destroy as much of the NATO's capabilities in the region within the first hours of a russian invasion of the Baltic nations. 24/n
russian ships... while Swedish (and likely also German) submarines and the air forces of Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Germany and Poland would join the rapid annihilation of the russian Baltic Fleet. This is why the Baltic Sea is called a NATO lake. 23/n
Baltic Sea dominated by Polish, Swedish, Finnish, Estonian and Latvian coastal batteries, which would sink every russian ship. Furthermore the navies of Sweden, Poland, Germany and Finland operate missile boats and corvettes, which would add to the barrage hitting the 22/n
Königsberg in range of rocket artillery, while Kronstadt is in range of Finnish and Estonian launched ER GMLRS rockets, and also Finnish F/A-18C/D launched AGM-158B-2 JASSM cruise missiles. In short russia's Baltic Fleet can either be sunk at its berth or set out into the 21/n
Now to the Baltic Sea... where russia has two main naval bases: Kronstadt near St. Petersburg and Baltiysk in occupied Königsberg. russian Bastion-P coastal batteries would dominate the Baltic Sea... but luckily Baltiysk is in range of Polish 155mm howitzers and the rest of 20/n
Türkiye is kept in NATO, because of its massive military (it fields more troops than Germany, the UK and Italy combined), and because the Turkish military on its own could devastate russian forces in the Black Sea and Caucasus and sweep the sea clean of all russian ships. 19/n
will have russian forces in the Black Sea annihilated and driven out of Crimea. If putin for once doesn't choose the most harebrained course of action, then Erdogan might be content to keep the russians bottled up in their bases... which would be very annoying, because 18/n

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